‘Most countries would dream of’ PHL debt-to-GDP levels, WB says

By Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

THE sustainability of Philippine debt is not currently a matter of serious concern, the World Bank (WB) said, noting however that the government still needs to rebuild fiscal buffers to prepare for future shocks.

“There is no cause for serious concern (over debt sustainability… Most countries would dream of having the kind of debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratios we have here,” World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi told reporters last week on the sidelines of an event.

Philippine debt-to-GDP was 63.1% at the end of the third quarter, rising from 60.1% a year earlier.

The rule of thumb for healthy levels of debt for developing countries is 60%, which the government has informally abandoned in favor of a new 70% benchmark.

Asked if the record P17.65-trillion debt stock at the end of November poses concerns for debt servicing, Mr. Al-Rikabi said it is “normal” for such levels to increase with inflation and fiscal deficits.

The Bureau of the Treasury will release the fourth-quarter debt-to-GDP ratio when the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reports full-year and fourth-quarter GDP.

“We still don’t have Q4 data, but in our projection, if you looked at the outlook slides, we are generally reassured that the fiscal situation is very sustainable,” he said.

In its Philippine Economic Update, the World Bank said it expects sovereign debt to start declining after 2026.

National Government debt is projected to peak at 62.5% of GDP in 2026 before declining to 61.4% by 2028.

Mr. Al-Rikabi also noted that public debt remains “sustainable,” noting that the majority of the debt is long-term and peso-denominated.

“Because if debt held (is) non-peso-denominated or short-term, that usually is much more volatile and is exposed to external shocks instead of just domestic shocks,” he said.

He also noted that the debt ratio was low at 40% leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, when the government had to take on much more debt to fund the pandemic containment effort and stimulate the economy.

“What we want to see on public debt, on servicing costs, is fiscal consolidation program being implemented,” he said.

“We want to rebuild fiscal space so that the country can act for future crisis. You had a lot of fiscal space back then. You’ll have fiscal space in the future,” he added.

Mr. Al-Rikabi said the government should take control of rising interest payments to avoid squeezing out productive spending.

“You want to spend more of your budget on education, on health, on effectively implementing infrastructure projects. You don’t want it to go increasingly on interest expenditure, which has grown over the last few years,” he said.

For 2026, the government has budgeted P2.01 trillion for debt service, with P1.06 trillion going to amortize principal and P950 billion to interest payments.

Mr. Al-Rikabi said the bank expects the economy to expand 5.3% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027.

“We do see deceleration for this year. We’re projecting around 5.1% (in 2025). Maybe with fourth-quarter data, it ends up being weaker. I don’t know. Or maybe around the same,” he said.

The revised government target is 5-6% for 2026 and 5.5-6.5% for 2027.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., projected a faster economic growth for the Philippines at 5.3% in 2025.

“Mainly because we’re a consumption-driven economy. We have one of the longest Christmases. People tend to forget when the calendar starts the ber-months it’s Christmas,” Mr. Ravelas said in a John Clements Consultants, Inc. event on Jan. 8.

“People talk about spending. This has been a major driver over the last two weeks of December. I think that could probably prop up the fourth quarter,” he said.

Mr. Ravelas sees the economy growing by 5.6% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan has said that GDP growth likely slowed to 4.8-5% in 2025 due to the flood control corruption scandal, prompting economic managers to temper their goals through 2027.

“We may have seen peak negative sentiment, unless somebody gets jailed (over the corruption scandal),” he said.

Mr. Ravelas said the peso may settle between P61 and P65 over the next three years, after the currency fell to a record low of P59.35 on Jan. 7.

“A weaker peso should be good for the Philippines even though we’re a net importing country, because we need to sell the Philippines as an investment destination,” he added.