Goldman Sachs Outlook for 2026: Strong US Economic Growth and Moderate Inflation Coexist; Fed to Cut Rates Twice More
PANews reported on January 12th that, according to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs economists believe the US economy will be driven by tax cuts, real wage growth, and rising wealth this year, while inflation will moderate. According to the bank's "2026 US Economic Outlook" report released on January 11th, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in June and September, respectively, due to increased uncertainty in the labor market outlook. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs predicts that GDP growth in 2026 (based on Q4 year-on-year growth) will be 2.5%, or 2.8% for the full year; by December, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation will be 2.1% year-on-year, and the core consumer price index (CPI) will slow to 2%; the baseline unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5%, but there is a risk of a period of "jobless growth" as businesses seek to utilize artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs. Regarding trade, Goldman Sachs assumes the upcoming midterm elections will make the cost of living a major political issue, which will prompt the White House to avoid any further significant tariff increases.
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