Apple (AAPL) Stock: iPhone Maker Dominates Global Smartphone Market in 2025

TLDR

• Apple captured 20% of the global smartphone market in 2025, the largest share among top five brands
• Global smartphone shipments increased 2% year-over-year in 2025, driven by emerging market demand
• Samsung ranked second with 19% market share, while Xiaomi took third place with 13%
• Manufacturers shipped products early in 2025 to avoid potential tariffs, though this effect faded later in the year
• Counterpoint predicts market softening in 2026 due to chip shortages and rising component costs as chipmakers prioritize AI data centers

Apple finished 2025 as the world’s leading smartphone maker with a 20% global market share, according to new data from Counterpoint Research. The performance puts Apple ahead of all competitors as the company prepares to report fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on January 29.

Apple Inc., AAPL

The iPhone 17 series drove much of Apple’s success. Strong sales of the new models helped the company gain ground in emerging and mid-sized markets. These regions showed improved demand throughout the year.

Global smartphone shipments rose 2% year-over-year in 2025. The growth reflects better economic conditions in developing markets. The increase marks a recovery after several weak years for the smartphone industry.

Samsung held second place with a 19% market share. The South Korean manufacturer posted modest shipment growth during the year. Xiaomi captured third position with 13% of the global market, supported by steady demand in emerging economies.

Early Year Tariff Rush

Many manufacturers accelerated shipments in early 2025 to avoid potential tariffs. This forward-buying created a temporary spike in first-half volumes. The effect diminished as the year progressed, with second-half shipments returning to normal levels.

Apple’s Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings will provide more detail on the company’s performance. Wall Street analysts expect earnings of $2.67 per share, up about 11% from last year. Revenue forecasts point to $137.41 billion, representing a 10.5% year-over-year increase.

The strong 2025 results show Apple’s ability to gain market share even during slow growth periods. The company expanded its presence in emerging markets while maintaining its position in developed economies. The iPhone 17 series launch timing proved effective for capturing year-end demand.

Supply Challenges Ahead

Counterpoint Research predicts the global smartphone market will soften in 2026. Chip shortages are expected to limit production capacity. Rising component costs will also pressure manufacturers.

Chipmakers are shifting resources toward AI data center production. This reallocation reduces available chip supply for smartphones. The supply constraint could slow market growth even if consumer demand remains stable.

Apple maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. The rating includes 19 Buy recommendations, 11 Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The average price target of $299.49 represents 15.47% upside potential from current levels.

Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra highlighted Apple’s performance in emerging markets as a key growth driver. Research director Tarun Pathak noted that chipmaker priorities will shape the 2026 market landscape. The tension between AI infrastructure demand and smartphone production will likely define supply conditions for the coming year.

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