Double bottom at financial crisis lows sets up potential 77% bounce

FMC Corporation has traveled a brutal path from its 2021 peak near $140 down to current levels around $15.20, retracing nearly its entire post-Financial Crisis rally. But for technical traders willing to stomach some risk, the chart is showing something that doesn’t come around often: a multi-year double bottom at historically significant support.

After getting absolutely hammered through 2024 and into 2025, FMC has now tested the same price zone it hit during the depths of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. That double bottom formation around $12 represents one of the most significant long-term support levels you can find on any chart. Price has inched up slightly off those lows to $15.20, and the technical setup suggests a potential bounce toward $27, representing roughly 77% upside from current levels.

The technical picture: Seventeen years between tests

The chart tells a story that spans nearly two decades. Back in 2008, when the entire financial system was on the brink, FMC found a floor around $12. From there, the stock rallied over the following years, eventually establishing a pivot support level at $27 in 2011. That $27 level was tested again in 2015-2016 and held firm, acting as a launching pad for the massive run that peaked in 2021.

But 2025 has been unforgiving. Price finally broke below that long-held $27 support, and once that level gave way, the stock went into freefall mode. The decline didn’t stop until it reached those 2008 lows, completing what technical analysts call a double bottom—two major lows separated by a significant time period, both occurring at approximately the same price level.

The green horizontal line at $27 now represents classic support-turned-resistance. In technical analysis, when a long-term support level breaks, it typically becomes the next resistance level on any bounce attempt. That’s exactly what we’re targeting here. A move from the current $15.20 back up to that former support would give traders a 77% gain, which ain’t too shabby for a recovery play.

Why the collapse? Fundamentals were brutal

You don’t see an 89% decline from peak to trough without some serious fundamental issues, and FMC delivered them in spades. The agricultural chemicals company has been dealing with what can only be described as a perfect storm of negative catalysts.

The agricultural sector itself entered a severe downcycle, with farmers pulling back on spending for crop protection products. At the same time, many of FMC’s key products came off patent, opening the door for generic competition that crushed both pricing power and margins. The company’s India business, once valued at nearly $1 billion, had to be written down to around $450 million and is being prepared for sale.

In October 2025, FMC reported third-quarter results that sent the stock into a death spiral. Revenue dropped 49% year-over-year to just $542 million, and the company posted a massive $569 million loss. Management slashed the dividend by 86% from $0.58 per share down to $0.08, which triggered a flood of selling from income-focused investors and funds. Free cash flow guidance was cut to a range of zero to negative $200 million for the full year.

The company’s debt load of over $4 billion became a major concern as cash generation evaporated. Generic competitors, particularly from China and other emerging markets, have been undercutting FMC on price, forcing the company to compete in what’s essentially become a commoditized market for many of its core products.

The bull case: Why this could be the bottom

Despite all that carnage, there are legitimate reasons to think FMC might have found a floor. First, the valuation has been absolutely destroyed. The stock is trading at just 4-5 times forward earnings estimates, which is distressed territory even for a struggling company. When expectations get this low, it doesn’t take much positive news to spark a significant bounce.

Second, the destocking cycle that’s plagued the agricultural chemicals industry appears to be nearing an end. Recent data shows that actual product use on farms has started to exceed distributor sales, which signals that inventory levels are normalizing. Once that channel clears, demand patterns should stabilize.

Third, FMC maintains a strong research pipeline with new products in biologicals and pheromones—higher-margin segments that could offset some of the pricing pressure in older, off-patent products. The company’s historical return on invested capital has been solid at around 17%, suggesting that if they can get through this downturn, the underlying business model still works.

Fourth, management has launched “Project Foundation,” a restructuring plan that involves closing expensive manufacturing sites and consolidating production at lower-cost locations. While painful in the near term, these moves should improve the cost structure significantly.

Finally, some deep-value investors are starting to circle. The technical double bottom is being reinforced by a fundamental argument that the worst is now priced in. With debt maturities not starting until 2029, FMC has time to work through its issues without facing an immediate liquidity crisis.

The trade setup

From a pure technical perspective, the bounce target to $27 makes sense. That level represents the last major support that broke, and resistance levels tend to be magnets for price on recovery moves. Whether FMC can actually get there depends on execution: showing stabilizing fundamentals, managing that debt load, and demonstrating that the new products can generate growth.

The risk is substantial. This isn’t a blue-chip recovery play. It’s a high-risk, high-reward situation where things could easily get worse before they get better. Additional patent cliffs are coming in 2026 for key products like Rynaxypyr, which could pressure results further. If cash flow doesn’t improve, that debt pile becomes a bigger problem.

But for traders who understand they’re catching a falling knife and are comfortable with that level of risk, the double bottom at Financial Crisis lows represents a technical setup that’s hard to ignore. Seventeen years between tests of the same support level carries weight. Combined with fundamentals that might finally be stabilizing and a valuation that’s in the gutter, FMC sets up as a potential recovery trade with that $27 resistance as a logical target.

The chart is clear. The question is whether management can deliver the operational improvements needed to justify the bounce.