Wall Street banks to kick off Q4 earnings as investors eye 2026 outlook

The major lenders on Wall Street will start the fourth-quarter earnings season this week while shareholders monitor their financial reports to understand the direction of the sector for 2026.

JPMorgan Chase reports Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, then Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, according to MarketWatch.

Financial institutions can now set more aggressive performance targets because the current regulatory environment has decreased supervisory activities.

The market consensus predicts JPMorgan EPS will reach $4.95 while revenue will amount to $46.2 billion.

The company Home Bancshares will release its Q4 financial results, but analysts predict the results will be inconsistent.

What to watch as results roll in

The “beat and raise” pattern, which supports long-term share price growth, appears during each earnings season when most S&P 500 companies exceed analyst predictions, according to MarketWatch.

The main focus for investors this week will be on the revenue composition and capital performance, and expense management of the biggest American banking institutions, together with their 2026 target adjustments.

The upcoming JPMorgan preview will concentrate on capital markets operations.

The sell-side analysts predict JPMorgan will achieve $4.95 per share earnings and $46.2 billion in net revenue when they release their results on Tuesday morning, according to the preview analysis.

The analysts predict JPMorgan will achieve 3% earnings growth and 8% revenue growth compared to the previous year, according to the preview analysis.

The bank’s capital markets group produces more than half of its net revenue and income through trading operations and deal transactions, which creates financial result dependence on these activities while achieving high returns on tangible common equity, according to the analysis.

The report established JPMorgan Chase as having a value that exceeded its actual worth by 16% when using the P/E ratio and 2.3 times its tangible book value, while showing excellent capital performance and 20% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), which supported its elevated market value.

The average fair value estimates that experts provided amounted to $313.

The following section presents a preview of Citigroup while examining how its growth performance relates to its investment returns.

The Wednesday morning report from Citigroup showed analysts predicted $20.6 billion in net revenue and $1.67 per share earnings, which would represent 5% revenue growth and 25% earnings growth compared to the previous year, according to the preview.

The research findings showed Citi would achieve 25% EPS growth through its dividend distribution program, yet the study revealed two main problems because of its 9% return on total equity capital and its need for more spending reductions and operational changes to generate value.

Home Bancshares stands as the banking institution that people should monitor in their region.

Home Bancshares will release fourth-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, Jan. 14, according to Benzinga.

The market predicts that the company will achieve 60 cents of earnings per share, which represents a rise from 50 cents during the previous year, while revenue will reach $272.48 million compared to $260.76 million in the past year.

The company on Dec. 8 agreed to acquire Mountain Commerce Bancorp for $150.1 million. Shares fell 1% to close at $28.45 on Friday, Benzinga reported.

Home Bancshares has received multiple analyst evaluations throughout the previous period.

The analyst Dave Rochester from Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a neutral position while starting his coverage at $32 on September 10th, 2025, and achieving a 70% accuracy rate.

Keefe Bruyette & Woods analyst Christopher McGratty maintained a Market Perform rating for the stock while increasing his price target to $32 from $30 on July 21, 2025.

The analyst achieved a 73% accuracy rate in his predictions.

RBC Capital analyst Karl Shepard maintained Sector Perform status for the stock while reducing his price target from $33 to $31 on April 21, 2025.

His predictions showed 68% accuracy.

The list includes Stephens & Co.’s Matt Olney, who predicts the stock will be overweight while setting a $33 target price for April 21, 2025, with a 75% accuracy rate.

Why it matters for investors

MarketWatch predicts that major banks will create capital return plans and obtain improved regulatory conditions, which will support the current high stock market values.

The bank operates in a market environment that affects its earnings performance because JPMorgan maintains a large capital markets division.

The company faces two main evaluation criteria because its financial performance depends on market conditions and its return on investment and organizational transformation progress.

Key dates and lineup

The financial results from JPMorgan Chase will become available to the public on Tuesday.

Wednesday: Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report; Home Bancshares after the close, per Benzinga.

Thursday: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report.

The main point is that the largest US banks, together with specific regional banks, will introduce multiple updates during this week, which will establish the direction for 2026.

The company should track its revenue breakdown and its investment returns, and all modifications to its guidance, which will affect how investors predict its performance.

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