ETH’s recent rally was driven by spot demand and a healthy use of futures market leverage, potentially setting Ether up for a move to $4,000.
Ether’s (ETH) futures and spot markets are sending mixed signals as futures positioning builds, but the altcoin’s price fails to make new highs. Data suggested that ETH traders are adding to their exposure even as spot buying underpins the recovery.
Key takeaways:
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Ether’s estimated leverage ratio fell to 0.67 by Sunday from an all-time high of 0.79 on Jan. 2, despite rising open interest.
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Aggregate spot CVD increased with the rally, indicating spot-led demand with a bullish positioning bias.
Ether open interest rebounds, but the price lags
Aggregated open interest (OI) for Ether futures has returned to levels seen before its 38% drawdown in Q4 2025, while ETH still trades roughly 27% below its Oct. 10, 2025, opening price. This divergence suggests traders are rebuilding exposure.
Ether open interest and price. Source: XSupporting this view, Ether’s estimated leverage ratio peaked at 0.79 on Jan. 2 before falling to 0.67 by Jan. 11. While OI continues to rise, the decline in leverage pointed to healthier positioning and a lower risk of cascading liquidations.
Meanwhile, the latest rally has been driven by rising spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), rather than the futures CVD. This indicates net market buying in the spot market, which is typically associated with more durable price moves. The long/short accounts ratio holding near 2.66 reflects a bullish skew, without signs of traders aggressively jumping into the market.
ETH price, spot CVD, futures CVD and long/short ratio. Source: CoinalyzeRelated: Standard Chartered said to plan crypto brokerage, trims ETH forecast
ETH staking flows, and macro signals add tailwinds
Onchain data shows growing long-term conviction. Lookonchain reported that BitMine staked 110,000 ETH worth $340 million on Monday, bringing its three-week total to about $3.7 billion. At a 2.8% yield, this could generate nearly $95 million in ETH annually for the company.
From a market structure point of view, Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin, noted that the Russell 2000 has historically led ETH into price discovery. With the index hitting a new all-time high at 2,664, conditions may favor expansion for ETH in the coming weeks.
Russell 2000 and ETH historical price comparison. Source: Max/XEchoing that view, crypto investor Jelle said Ether turning a major weekly resistance into support “feels pretty big,” adding that a strong higher low after last year’s crash leaves $4,000 as the key hurdle. Above it, ETH “could finally have its moment,” noted the investor.
Related: Bank of Italy models Ethereum risks if ETH value collapsed
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