Merck (MRK) Stock; Declines 1.2% as $70B Mid-2030s Target Fails to Excite Investors

TLDRs;

• Merck shares fell 1.2% as investors remain cautious despite the ambitious $70 billion mid-2030s revenue projection.

• Keytruda faces increasing generic competition, creating pressure on Merck’s near-term growth and future market share.

• Merck’s pipeline shows significant potential in oncology and cardiometabolic treatments, driving optimism for mid-2030s revenue.

• Investors are closely watching Merck’s February 3 earnings report for guidance and updates on product launches.

Merck & Co (MRK) saw its shares slip 1.2% to $109.19 on Monday, despite unveiling ambitious long-term growth projections that envision more than $70 billion in revenue from new products and pipeline candidates by the mid-2030s.

The decline highlights investor skepticism about the company’s ability to maintain its blockbuster performance in the face of mounting generic competition, particularly for its top-selling cancer drug, Keytruda.

Merck & Co., Inc., MRK

Ambitious Revenue Goals Fall Short of Excitement

Merck’s latest forecast lifts the company’s cardiometabolic and respiratory sales expectations to around $20 billion, up from $15 billion, while its infectious-disease segment is projected at $15 billion, tripling previous forecasts.

Yet, analysts and investors were cautious, noting that the $70 billion projection is “non-risk adjusted,” meaning it doesn’t account for potential trial failures, regulatory delays, or setbacks in clinical development.

At the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Merck emphasized that its pipeline is more “clinically derisked,” with approximately 80 Phase 3 studies underway and plans for over 20 new product launches. Despite these assurances, traders appeared hesitant to reward the long-term target, instead focusing on the near-term implications for earnings and product launches.

Keytruda Facing Generic Pressure

Investors remain particularly concerned about Keytruda, Merck’s cornerstone oncology drug, which is approaching a patent cliff. Loss of exclusivity (LOE) could expose the drug to generic competition as early as 2026, potentially denting revenues significantly. Merck has downplayed the gap, arguing that its pipeline, especially in oncology, could largely offset Keytruda’s expected decline.

The company projects over $25 billion in potential oncology revenue by the mid-2030s, with cardiometabolic and respiratory treatments following at around $20 billion each. Infectious disease programs, including treatments for HIV and other viral conditions, are expected to contribute $15 billion. These figures underscore the firm’s strategy of diversifying beyond its flagship drug while staying competitive in crowded therapeutic areas.

Data-Rich Pipeline Through 2027

Merck also highlighted a “data-rich” period extending through 2027, pointing to several key studies expected to reach primary completion in 2026. These milestones, when trial data are finalized, could serve as important signposts for investors evaluating the company’s near-term trajectory.

However, uncertainty remains high: regulatory hurdles, pricing pressures, and competitive challenges could quickly force revisions to Merck’s long-term forecasts.

Investors will be closely monitoring how analysts incorporate these new targets into shorter-term revenue models, as well as any impact on broader discussions about patent cliffs, potential partnerships, or strategic acquisitions.

Upcoming Quarterly Report Key Focus

Merck’s next major test will be its quarterly earnings report on February 3, where investors will look for guidance on 2026 revenues, updates on product launches, and more clarity on offsetting Keytruda’s LOE.

The market reaction to these results may prove more decisive than long-term projections, as traders weigh whether the $70 billion mid-2030s target represents realistic growth or merely aspirational guidance.

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