VanEck 2026 Q1 Outlook: Risk-On Markets Put Bitcoin and Crypto Back in Focus

• Institutional investors are now the main force driving Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
• The SEC has removed digital assets from its list of top-priority risks for the year.
• Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade is turning the network into an international financial layer.

The global financial space is entering a new phase as the new year begins. After years of uncertainty, a major change is happening in how people view digital assets. 

Investment firm VanEck recently released its Q1 outlook. In this outlook, it pointed to a general move toward “risk-on” assets. 

The firm is moving away from simple monthly price targets to focus on big structural trends, and its data shows that institutional adoption is creating a solid foundation for the market. 

Revaluation of AI and the Bitcoin Cycle

The massive run-up in SI stocks hit a wall late last year, and prices for many leading tech companies reached “nosebleed” levels by October. 

However, the selloff that followed has created a much better entry point for the current year. Demand for computing power and productivity gains has not slowed down. Instead, this correction simply brought prices back to earth.

Related sectors like nuclear power have also seen a meaningful price reset. 

These companies provide the electricity needed to run massive AI data centers and because valuations are now more reasonable, the risk-reward profile for these stocks looks very attractive. 

Gold and India Lead Global Growth

According to VanEck, Gold is quickly reappearing as a top global monetary asset. Central banks around the world are buying gold to move away from a dollar-centric system. 

While the metal looks expensive from a technical standpoint, structural demand remains very high. In other words, any price pullbacks should be seen as a chance to add more exposure. 

This is also supported by the idea that Gold serves as a stabiliser when fiscal deficits are an issue. Amid all of this, India remains a high-conviction story for the VanEck team. 

The country is reportedly benefiting from durable growth and major structural reforms. Unlike other emerging markets, India offers a clear path for long-term expansion. This makes it a major piece of a diversified global portfolio this year.

Business Development Companies and the Bitcoin Cycle

Business development companies (BDCs) had a rough ride over most of last year. However, that difficult year actually turned out to be a gift for current buyers. 

Yields are now very attractive because credit fears have already been priced into the market. Management firms like Ares are also trading at valuations that show their true earnings power. 

This sector offers a way to capture high income while the general market stays in a risk-on mode.

The Bitcoin cycle influence is also appearing in corporate treasuries. Over 170 publicly traded companies now hold digital assets as part of their reserves, and this trend represents about 5% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin. 

When big companies treat an asset like a treasury reserve, it changes the market itself, and this trend helps support the “Super Cycle” theory from Binance founder, Changpeng Zhao.

Regulatory Changes and Network Upgrades

A major change for 2026 is the new stance of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The agency has moved away from “regulation by enforcement” under new leadership, and this trend toward regulatory normalcy allows liquidity to flow more freely into new financial products. 

Over 100 crypto-linked ETFs are expected to launch this year, and this “ETF-palooza” is a direct result of the government finally providing a clear framework for the market. Technological leaps are also driving value, and the Ethereum “Fusaka” upgrade has massively lowered fees for Layer 2 networks. 

This makes the blockchain more useful for global finance and stablecoin settlements. 

As fees drop, network usage is expected to grow. This creates a supply shock because more tokens are being staked or used in the ecosystem.

Assessing the 2050 Base Case

VanEck analysts have looked far into the future in their research, and their model suggests the Bitcoin cycle could eventually reach $2.9 million by 2050. 

Ethereum, too, is expected to grow and hit levels around $55,000 by 2030, according to VanEck, if growth continues at this rate.

However, this assumes that the asset will be used to settle a major part of international trade. While that is a long-term target, the current Q1 data shows that we are moving toward that reality. 

Nation-states are even reportedly considering digital assets for their strategic reserves. 

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