TRX: Rise or Fall? January 13, 2026 Scenario Analysis

TRX is currently exhibiting a squeezed market structure at the $0.30 level. While the overall uptrend continues, short-term bearish signals (MACD negative histogram, Supertrend resistance) along with neutral RSI (51.05) paint a conflicting picture. This critical juncture enables both upside and downside breakout scenarios; traders should be prepared for both directions.

Current Market Situation

TRX is trading sideways at the $0.30 level as of January 13, 2026. Over the last 24 hours, there has been a slight decline of -0.10%, with trading volume at a moderate $105.58M. Although the overall trend is defined as an uptrend, short-term technicals show bearish pressure: Price is below EMA20 ($0.30), MACD negative histogram signals bearish momentum, and the Supertrend indicator points to $0.30 resistance. RSI at 51.05 is in neutral territory, with no overbought/oversold conditions.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 11 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Key supports are $0.2970 (strength score 74/100) and $0.2909 (72/100); resistances are $0.2997 (79/100), $0.3123 (62/100), and $0.3170 (62/100). The market is consolidating around these levels; the breakout direction will be decisive. There are no recent breakouts in the news flow for TRX, so technicals are in the forefront.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

The upside scenario is triggered by the price first breaking above the $0.2997 resistance (strength 79/100) with increased volume and surpassing the Supertrend resistance at $0.30 to the upside. Confirmation signals to watch include RSI rising above 60, MACD histogram crossing above the zero line, and a close above EMA20. In the context of the overall uptrend, despite resistance density on 3D and 1W timeframes, momentum can be captured if volume rises to $150M+. In this scenario, the reversal of short-term bearish signals (MACD negativity) is critical; for example, a bullish divergence may form. Traders should monitor green candle closes on the 4-hour chart and rising OBV (On-Balance Volume). Invalidation criterion: This scenario becomes invalid if price loses the $0.2970 support.

Target Levels

First target $0.3123 (strength 62/100); if broken, extension to $0.3170 (62/100) is possible. In a stronger uptrend continuation, $0.33+ regions could come into play according to 1W MTF levels. Risk/reward ratio (R/R), calculated from current $0.30, is around 1:4 at the first target (approximately $0.0123 profit/$0.003 loss). While monitoring these levels, Fibonacci extensions (%161.8) can also be supportive; for example, extension after 50% retracement from recent swing low to high points around $0.315.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario activates with the $0.2970 support (strength 74/100) breaking downward on volume. The current MACD bearish histogram and Supertrend signal support this direction, while price remaining below EMA20 acts as a trigger. RSI dropping below 40, new lows in MACD, and resistance pressure on 1D/3D timeframes (total 8 resistance levels) increase risks. Decreasing volume or a chain of red candles strengthens selling pressure. A broader market risk-off environment (e.g., BTC correlation) could also contribute. Invalidation criterion: This scenario becomes invalid if $0.2997 resistance breaks and closes above it. Traders should track bearish engulfing patterns and descending channel formations.

Protection Levels

First protection at $0.2909 (strength 72/100); if broken, a drop to $0.2859 target (strength 46) is expected. In a deeper correction, the $0.27-$0.28 range could come into play according to 1W supports. R/R ratio from current levels to first target is around 1:3.5 (approximately $0.0141 loss/$0.004 profit). These levels align with pivot points and VWAP, offering strong stop-loss points; for example, a position size reduction strategy can be applied on a close below $0.2970.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Both scenarios have equal probability; distinguishing triggers are breakout volume and indicator confirmations. For upside: Close above $0.2997 + RSI>55 + MACD zero line crossover. For downside: Close below $0.2970 + RSI<45 + negative volume profile. Neutral RSI reflects the current situation, so monitor momentum shifts on 1-4 hour timeframes. MTF alignment is critical: A 1D bull breakout clashing with 3D resistances may weaken. With low volatility (range $0.30-$0.30), ATR increase signals a breakout. Follow live data from TRX Spot Analysis and TRX Futures Analysis pages.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

TRX’s consolidation around $0.30 offers traders preparation opportunities in both directions. The uptrend background preserves bullish potential, while short-term bearish signals balance the risks. Monitoring points: Volume spikes, $0.2997/$0.2970 breakouts, RSI/MACD divergences, and BTC correlation. Apply your own risk management, do not neglect stop-losses. This analysis serves as a tool to enhance your decision-making process; the market is dynamic, follow regular updates.