Cardano (ADA) Price: Whales Accumulate 100M Tokens as Market Tests Key Support

TLDR

• Cardano price remains stuck below $0.40 despite whale wallets adding roughly 100 million ADA tokens near support levels worth about $40 million
• The 20-day exponential moving average is holding as support, but On-Balance Volume shows weakening buying pressure and potential quiet selling
• Wallets holding 1-10 million ADA added 20 million coins while wallets with 10-100 million ADA added 80 million tokens starting January 11
• Derivatives traders remain mostly net short with no strong buildup of new long positions, showing limited confidence in upside moves
• US inflation data came in softer than expected at 2.6% core inflation versus 2.7% forecast, helping push ADA briefly above $0.40

The Cardano price is down roughly 6% over the past seven days. The token has barely moved in the last 24 hours as it trades near $0.40.

Price action has stayed close to one key trend line for several days without breaking lower or pushing higher. This same support level already decided Cardano’s direction once before.

On December 11, Cardano lost its 20-day exponential moving average and dropped nearly 25%. The EMA gives more weight to recent prices and helps show whether short-term trend support remains intact.

This time, the EMA is still holding. But volume data tells a different story.

On-Balance Volume tracks whether trading volume flows into up candles or out through down candles. Between December 28 and January 5, Cardano price trended higher while OBV trended lower. This pattern often signals quiet selling rather than healthy demand.

OBV has slipped below its recent trendline. Volume support is weakening, not improving.

Whale Wallets Add Tokens Near Support

Despite weakening volume metrics, Cardano has not broken down. Large holders have been buying dips according to on-chain data.

Wallets holding 1 to 10 million ADA increased their balances from roughly 5.49 billion to 5.51 billion tokens. This equals about 20 million ADA added starting January 11.

Wallets holding 10 to 100 million ADA increased holdings from roughly 13.44 billion to 13.52 billion tokens. This group added about 80 million ADA over the same period.

Combined, whale wallets added close to 100 million ADA. At current prices, that equals roughly $40 million in dip buying.

The Money Flow Index has been trending higher. This indicator combines price and volume to track buying pressure. The data shows money flowing into Cardano even as broader conviction remains mixed.

Sellers lack follow-through while buyers continue to absorb dips. But accumulation alone does not guarantee a rally.

Derivatives Traders Stay Cautious

Derivatives data adds another layer to the picture. Over the past 24 hours, smart money positioning has stayed mostly unchanged despite being net long.

There is no strong buildup of new long positions. Top 100 addresses and regular whale traders remain net short with no meaningful long buildup.

This behavior means traders expect a move but are not committing to upside yet.

Since January 7, Cardano has traded in a tight range between $0.37 and $0.40. ADA lost the $0.40 level on January 8 and has failed to reclaim it since.

A clean move above $0.40 followed by acceptance toward $0.43 would signal trend recovery. This would also require OBV to stabilize and turn higher.

The downside case is clearer. A daily close below $0.37 would weaken the structure and open a move toward $0.35. If selling accelerates, $0.31 comes back into play.

US inflation data released Tuesday showed core inflation rose 2.6% annually in December. This came in softer than the expected 2.7%. Headline inflation increased by 2.7%, matching forecasts.

Cryptocurrency prices rose slightly after the report. ADA moved above $0.40 from an intraday low of $0.38.

Futures Open Interest averaged $742 million on Tuesday, down from $780 million on Monday and $844 million on January 5. The metric averaged $1.51 billion on October 10 after peaking at $1.95 billion in mid-September. Declining Open Interest suggests traders are losing confidence in the token’s ability to maintain an uptrend.

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