MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau is not ruling out landfall in Eastern Visayas and/or Bicol for Tropical Depression Ada, though its projected track also shows its center might just stay offshore.

Ada was located 420 kilometers east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte, as of 10 am on Thursday, January 15. It is moving west northwest at only 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The tropical depression currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h, but it could strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 am bulletin on Thursday that Ada may pass close to Eastern Samar and Northern Samar on Friday evening, January 16, or early Saturday morning, January 17, before moving close to Catanduanes on Saturday evening or Sunday morning, January 18.

But PAGASA added that “a further westward shift” in Ada’s track may lead to landfall in Eastern Visayas and/or Bicol.

With or without landfall, Ada will be dumping considerable rain in Caraga, Eastern Visayas, and Bicol. These regions must be on alert for floods and landslides.

Thursday noon, January 15, to Friday noon, January 16

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur

Friday noon, January 16, to Saturday noon, January 17

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Masbate, Sorsogon, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands

Saturday noon, January 17, to Sunday noon, January 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Sorsogon, Camarines Norte, Northern Samar

The tropical depression is also bringing strong winds to these areas that are under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am on Thursday:

• Sorsogon
• southeastern part of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Manito, Legazpi City, Bacacay, Santo Domingo)
• Catanduanes
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Eastern Samar
• eastern part of Biliran (Maripipi, Kawayan, Culaba, Caibiran, Cabucgayan)
• eastern part of Leyte (Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Tunga, Jaro, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Dagami, Pastrana, Tanauan, Tabontabon, Julita, Dulag, Tolosa, La Paz, Mayorga, MacArthur, Javier, Abuyog, Mahaplag)
• eastern part of Southern Leyte (Silago, Sogod, Libagon, Saint Bernard, Hinunangan, Hinundayan, Anahawan, San Juan, Liloan, San Ricardo, San Francisco, Pintuyan)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ada is Signal No. 2.

The northeast monsoon or amihan and the periphery of the tropical depression may also bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Thursday, January 15

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, Calabarzon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol, Visayas, Caraga, Davao Oriental

Friday, January 16

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, eastern Isabela, Aurora, Calabarzon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol, Visayas, Caraga

Saturday, January 17

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, eastern Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Aurora, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol, Visayas, Caraga

Moderate to rough seas will persist in certain seaboards as well.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, Northern Samar, and Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands; eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Sur – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, and northern mainland Quezon; eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Davao Oriental; northern seaboard of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte; northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of Davao Occidental – waves up to 2 meters high

Ada is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2026.

PAGASA expects two to eight tropical cyclones to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the first half of 2026. These are the estimates per month:

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 1 or 2
• June – 1 or 2

– Rappler.com