Why Arthur Hayes is betting on a 2026 bitcoin liquidity rebound with MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash

In his latest analysis on shifting macro conditions, arthur hayes lays out a case for a 2026 bitcoin liquidity rebound after a difficult 2025.

From 2025 underperformance to a 2026 liquidity turn

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argues that Bitcoin‘s weak performance in 2025 was not a verdict on so-called crypto narratives but a straightforward dollar-credit story. Instead, he frames the year as a test of how markets react when US dollar liquidity tightens and cross-asset correlations break down.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks through 2025, even as it still behaved “as expected” under tightening financial conditions. However, he notes that this divergence did not invalidate the idea of Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for tech, but rather exposed how those labels can be misleading when liquidity shrinks.

Hayes points out that, in his view, the real story was that Bitcoin underperformed while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different structural reasons, despite falling dollar liquidity. That said, he stresses that this performance gap sets the stage for 2026, when he expects conditions to reverse.

Gold, AI equities and the liquidity puzzle

On gold, Hayes argues that the bid is now dominated by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail speculation. Moreover, he links the metal’s strength to growing distrust of US Treasury exposure following past episodes where assets were frozen, highlighting that central banks behave as price-insensitive buyers.

He sums up this risk bluntly: “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” In this framing, gold demand is less about short-term trading and more about hedging political and sanctions risk.

Turning to equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy reading of the AI trade. He claims the US and China both treat “winning AI” as a strategic objective, which dulls normal market discipline and helps explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. However, this decoupling is precisely what leads him back to liquidity as the main variable for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, Nasdaq and the role of dollar liquidity

Hayes writes that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq typically rise when dollar liquidity expands, and the “only problem” is the recent divergence between tech stocks and his liquidity indicators. He repeatedly returns to what he calls the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver to monitor, rather than sentiment shifts or narrative changes.

In his view, the key takeaway for 2026 is straightforward: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. Moreover, he contends that both Bitcoin and dollar liquidity bottomed at roughly the same time, arguing that the next major move will depend more on renewed credit expansion than on speculative mania.

This is where the phrase arthur hayes becomes shorthand for a broader macro thesis. He is not simply calling for higher prices; he is mapping Bitcoin’s path to the same forces that shape credit, central-bank balance sheets and government policy.

The three-pillar case for a 2026 liquidity rebound

Hayes’s 2026 outlook rests on a sharp rebound in US dollar credit creation built on three main channels. First is a growing Federal Reserve balance sheet driven by Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Second is commercial bank lending into “strategic industries.” Third is lower mortgage rates triggered by policy-directed demand for mortgage-backed securities.

In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a major headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer of assets. He claims RMP “at a minimum” is expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and he expects that pace to rise as US government funding needs grow.

The second pillar is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25 as large lenders became more willing to extend loans into areas where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. However, he also flags this as a politically driven process, not a purely market-driven one.

The third pillar is housing. Hayes cites Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Moreover, he expects this support to push mortgage rates lower, potentially rekindling a familiar wealth effect in housing and, by extension, more consumer credit.

He ties all three elements together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns decisively higher, Bitcoin should follow that trend. That said, he presents this as a macro timing framework rather than a promise of a straight line upward.

Adding risk: MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash

Against this backdrop, Hayes says he is actively adding risk for 2026. He describes himself as a “degen speculator” and notes that Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” yet he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture convex upside if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels.

Rather than using perpetual futures or options, Hayes is long Strategy (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet to gain levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. Moreover, he views these equities as high-torque expressions of a renewed Bitcoin bull market that can outperform the underlying asset.

His timing argument rests on valuation relativity. He compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet and dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios are near the low end of the past two years. He notes they are “down substantially” from their mid-2025 peaks, which he views as an appealing entry zone.

Hayes adds an important trigger level: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” However, he also implies that this leverage cuts both ways in a downturn.

Continued Zcash accumulation and ECC’s pivot

Alongside the equity bets, Hayes highlights continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC). He argues that the departure of developers from Electric Coin Company (ECC) should not be read as a bearish signal for the privacy-focused network.

“We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands,” he writes, underscoring his long-term conviction.

At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33, offering a real-time reference point for his leveraged Bitcoin-equity thesis. Moreover, this price anchors his broader argument that valuation dispersion across Bitcoin-linked assets can offer attractive entry points ahead of a possible 2026 liquidity resurgence.

Outlook: liquidity first, narratives second

Hayes’s “Frowny Cloud” essay ultimately prioritizes dollar liquidity over narratives when explaining Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance and potential 2026 recovery. In his framework, sovereign gold buying, AI-driven industrial policy and housing support programs are all parts of the same credit cycle.

If his three-pillar view on US dollar liquidity proves correct, Bitcoin and its levered plays such as Strategy, Metaplanet and Zcash could stand to benefit disproportionately. However, as Hayes himself implies, the trade is only as strong as the next leg of credit expansion.