Microsoft (MSFT) Stock: Why This Seven-Month Low Could Be a Buying Opportunity

TLDR

• Microsoft shares fell to $459.53, the lowest level in seven months, down 8% over three months.
• KeyBanc survey reveals IT spending will increase 5.3% in 2026 versus 4.6% in 2025.
• Public cloud spending expectations jumped 17 percentage points, benefiting Azure growth prospects.
• Microsoft purchased 2.85 million soil carbon credits in a deal worth $171M-$228M.
• Analysts maintain positive outlook with KeyBanc targeting $630 and Goldman Sachs at $655.

Microsoft shares touched $459.53 on Wednesday, marking a seven-month low. The 2.4% decline extended a rough three-month period that saw the stock fall 8%.

Microsoft Corporation, MSFT

Market concerns about software companies and AI investments have pressured the price. But new data from KeyBanc suggests the selling may be overdone.

A survey of IT resellers points to accelerating budget growth. Customer spending is projected to increase 5.3% in 2026, up from 4.6% in 2025.

The improved spending outlook should help Microsoft’s cloud and AI businesses. Azure and Copilot products are expected to capture a larger share of IT budgets.

Azure Benefits from Cloud Optimism

The KeyBanc survey included a striking data point about cloud spending. 30% of respondents expect public cloud investments to grow faster in 2026.

Copilot adoption is also progressing. More survey participants reported customers moving from experimentation to actual deployment.

KeyBanc rates Microsoft as Overweight with a $630 price target. Goldman Sachs recently went higher, setting a $655 target based on the company’s diversified AI strategy.

Microsoft’s investments in Anthropic complement its partnership with OpenAI. This dual approach has won over some analysts worried about concentration risk.

AI Adoption Questions Persist

Adoption rates remain a sticking point for investors. The Information reported last month that Microsoft was adjusting sales quotas for enterprise AI products.

Microsoft disputed that characterization. The company stated that overall AI product quotas had not been reduced.

The KeyBanc survey shows customers are still mostly experimenting. Production deployments of generative AI remain in the low-to-mid-single digits.

But the trend is moving in the right direction. More companies are piloting AI tools each quarter.

Record Carbon Credit Agreement

Microsoft announced a major sustainability deal this week. The company will buy 2.85 million soil carbon removal credits from Indigo Carbon over 12 years.

The agreement supports Microsoft’s goal to become carbon negative by 2030. It’s the third deal between the two companies after purchases in 2024 and 2025.

The credits come from regenerative agriculture practices across the United States. These farming methods remove carbon dioxide while improving soil quality.

A source told Reuters the deal is valued between $171 million and $228 million. Microsoft has not confirmed those figures publicly.

The carbon credit purchase ranks among the largest soil-based deals ever completed. The 12-year commitment provides stable funding for participating farmers using regenerative techniques.

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