LINK: Rise or Fall? January 15, 2026 Scenario Analysis

Chainlink (LINK) is currently trading at $13.77 and, while in a general uptrend, stands at a critical juncture with short-term bearish signals. RSI is neutral (52.13), MACD shows a negative histogram, and the price is below EMA20. Both bull and bear scenarios are possible with strong support and resistance levels; this analysis teaches preparedness for both directions.

Current Market Situation

LINK is trading at $13.77 as of January 15, 2026. It experienced a -3.10% decline in the last 24 hours, with the daily range between $13.72-$14.40 and volume at $316 million. While the overall trend is defined as an uptrend, the short-term technical picture gives mixed signals.

RSI(14) at 52.13 is in the neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold conditions. MACD is bearish; the negative histogram and signal line crossover indicate downward momentum. The price is trading just below the EMA20 ($13.77) level, confirming short-term bearish pressure. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode, with the first resistance at $14.70.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 15 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, and a balanced 3 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Key supports: $13.6563 (score 69/100), $12.7681 (69/100), $13.3839 (67/100). Resistances: $13.8506 (88/100, strongest), $14.0690 (72/100), $14.4000 (67/100). These levels indicate breakout potential in both directions. There are no recent news in the market, so technical-focused analysis takes precedence.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

The bullish scenario is triggered by a clear upside break above the first resistance at $13.8506 (high-score pivot). This breakout should be confirmed by increased volume and RSI rising above 60. Then, $14.0690 and $14.4000 levels are tested; Supertrend turning bullish and MACD histogram turning positive strengthens momentum. A sustained close above EMA20 is required for the uptrend to continue. With 1W uptrend support in MTF, potential catalysts could include oracle updates in the Chainlink ecosystem or a general altcoin rally. Rapid movement is expected after the breakout, but a low-volume rise carries false breakout risk – watch: daily closes and volume profile.

Target Levels

First target $14.4000 (daily high), followed by extension target $15.5012 (score 22/100, Fibonacci extension). This level was calculated from measured moves based on 1D and 3D resistance clusters. Risk/reward ratio (R/R), based on $13.6563 support, is approximately 1:2.5. Invalidation: Close below $13.6563 invalidates the scenario and shifts to the bear side. You can track these levels on the LINK Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario begins with a close below the $13.6563 support (strong score 69/100). This breakout is confirmed by increasing volume, RSI dropping below 50, and deeper negative MACD divergence. Supertrend remains bearish, and sustained trading below EMA20 increases pressure. In MTF, 1D support breaks and general market risk-off mode (BTC dominance increase) act as triggers. Short-term bearish signals are already present; decreasing volume could facilitate support breaks. Watch: weekly closes and altcoin correlation – LINK may remain sensitive in a general downturn.

Protection Levels

First stop $13.3839, main target $12.7681, and extension $12.3197 (score 45/100, strong bearish target). These levels are derived from MTF support clusters and volatility-based measurements. R/R, based on $13.8506 resistance, is around 1:2.8. Invalidation: Close above $13.8506 breaks the scenario and shifts to the bull side. For futures trading, check details on the LINK Futures Analysis page.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision-making triggers are clear: For bulls, volume-backed breakout above $13.8506 + RSI>60 + positive MACD. For bears, close below $13.6563 + RSI<50 + volume spike. In this equally probable setup (MTF balance), position invalidation levels according to risk. Volume profile and 4H closes provide confirmation. When the market is neutral, a wait-and-see strategy is instructive: Do not enter positions before breakout, wait for confirmation. Calculate R/R for each scenario and conduct your own analysis.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

At this critical point where LINK stands at $13.77, both scenarios are technically based and equally probable. Bulls: Watch for $13.8506 breakout, target $15.5012. Bears: Wait for $13.6563 breakout, target $12.3197. Daily monitoring: Volume, RSI/MACD divergences, MTF levels. Let this analysis help refine your own decisions – the market is open to surprises. Regularly check our spot and futures pages.