Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Recovery in 2026

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, published ‘Frowny Cloud’ on Substack, analyzing Bitcoin’s weak 2025 performance due to Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening impacting dollar liquidity.

Hayes predicts Bitcoin’s resurgence in 2026 with liquidity expansion, potentially exceeding $110,000, affecting assets like MicroStrategy and Zcash, underlining liquidity’s role in asset performance.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, in his essay “Frowny Cloud,” attributed Bitcoin’s weak 2025 performance to tight U.S. dollar liquidity, a result of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening. “Forget about 2025 and Bitcoin’s underperformance; the liquidity didn’t support our crypto portfolios. But let’s not draw the wrong conclusions from Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance. It was as it always is, a liquidity story.”

Hayes, serving as CIO at Maelstrom, argues Bitcoin will rebound in 2026, with potential prices exceeding $110,000. Related assets such as MicroStrategy and Zcash might also benefit from anticipated U.S. dollar liquidity expansions.

Bitcoin traded between $87,000 and $95,000 in late 2025, constrained by liquidity scarcity. Hayes links this to historical post-2008 dollar contraction trends affecting Bitcoin’s performance compared to other assets like gold and tech stocks.

The tight 2025 market conditions mirrored past cycles where scarce dollars depressed risk assets, including Bitcoin. Hayes notes that related stocks, like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, experienced similar pressures, emphasizing liquidity over intrinsic asset issues.

Bitcoin’s past performance during liquidity expansions suggests a historic positive correlation between increased dollar liquidity and crypto asset growth. Hayes projects a similar trend post-2026, with potential upward momentum in Bitcoin pricing.

Future anticipated dollar liquidity expansion could boost Bitcoin and correlated assets, aligning with historical patterns. Hayes remains optimistic about technological and monetary policy impacts, reinforcing confidence in crypto assets amid predicted macroeconomic shifts.