Daily Market Update: Bitcoin Tests $95K While Trump Tariff Ruling Looms Over Markets

TLDR

• Bitcoin stabilizes around $95,000 with 54% probability of hitting $100,000 in January according to Polymarket data
• Recent rally driven by short squeeze and record $800 million ETF inflows over three-month period
• Ether maintains position near $3,300 supported by yield demand and stable funding rates
• Supreme Court delay continues on Trump tariff case as companies seek refunds on import duties
• US-Taiwan semiconductor trade agreement announced while China posts record $1.2 trillion trade surplus

Bitcoin maintained its position close to $95,000 during Asian trading sessions after experiencing a volatile week. The cryptocurrency’s recent price action has traders focused on whether it can reach the psychologically important $100,000 level.

Data from Polymarket prediction markets indicates a 54% chance that Bitcoin will touch $100,000 before the end of January. This probability makes it the most favored outcome among market participants placing bets on short-term price movements.

Expectations decrease rapidly for higher price targets. Just 22% of traders believe Bitcoin will reach $105,000, while only 8% anticipate a climb to $110,000 this month.

The probability of Bitcoin dropping to $85,000 has fallen to 15%. This suggests traders see limited downside risk in the current market environment.

Short Squeeze and ETF Flows Power Rally

Market maker Flowdesk attributed the recent surge past $95,000 to a short squeeze. Traders betting on lower prices were forced to close positions as Bitcoin climbed, adding buying pressure to the market.

Exchange-traded fund inflows played a key role in supporting prices. Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $800 million in net inflows, representing the highest three-month total since these products launched.

Trading desk Enflux described the price movement as driven by order flow rather than fundamental factors. The firm noted that attempts to reach $97,000 showed reactive buying without clear macroeconomic catalysts.

Liquidity conditions improved during the rally. Order books at major exchanges showed stronger bid-side depth at top price levels, making it easier for buyers to enter positions.

Ether continued trading near $3,300, demonstrating relative strength compared to Bitcoin. Demand from investors seeking yield has provided support for the second-largest cryptocurrency.

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets remained neutral throughout the recent volatility. This indicates traders have not taken on excessive leverage in either direction.

Trump Tariff Case Remains Unresolved

The US Supreme Court has yet to issue its ruling on President Trump’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs under emergency powers. The case has drawn attention from major corporations and trade policy observers.

Trump invoked a 1977 law designed for national emergencies to implement his tariff program. The Supreme Court heard arguments in November, with justices from both sides expressing skepticism about the approach.

Retailers including Costco have filed lawsuits seeking refunds on duties paid under the tariff regime. These cases hinge on the Supreme Court finding Trump exceeded his legal authority.

Trump posted on social media Monday that losing the case would create serious problems for the United States. He has repeatedly voiced concerns about the potential ruling in recent weeks.

The United States and Taiwan finalized a trade agreement Thursday. Officials said the deal would encourage semiconductor manufacturing to return to American facilities.

China reported its trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2025. The figure came despite Trump’s existing tariff policies on Chinese imports.

Gold prices declined in early US trading as geopolitical tensions eased. Trump’s statement that he would not remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also calmed market concerns.

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