Why This Bull Run Differs from 1980 & 2011

Silver trades near $90.52 per ounce as of writing, posting a 16.3% gain over the past seven days and extending a rally that has now lasted nine consecutive months. Market data shows no previous period where silver advanced for this long without interruption. 

Now, traders and analysts debate a familiar question. Does a parabolic move guarantee a collapse, or does this cycle follow a different script?

Why 1980 Still Shapes Market Memory

Market participants often cite 1980 as proof that sharp silver rallies end badly. Historical records show that episode did not reflect organic price discovery. The Hunt brothers accumulated an outsized share of global silver supply and relied heavily on leverage in a thin market. 

Prices surged because supply tightened artificially, not because global demand changed.

Source: X

Once exchanges raised margin requirements and restricted trading, forced liquidations followed, and prices fell rapidly. Analysts note a key distinction today. No single entity controls a comparable share of deliverable silver, and no rule-driven liquidation process looms over the market. 

Without concentrated leverage, the structural trigger that defined 1980 remains absent.

The 2011 Rally and Its Reversible Demand

Comparisons to 2011 appear more frequent in current commentary. Silver surged that year as retail participation increased and macro fears fueled investment flows. Exchange-traded products and leveraged positions amplified the move. 

When liquidity conditions tightened, speculative demand reversed. Prices declined because financial interest vanished, not because silver lost intrinsic relevance.

Source: X

Current market data shows a different demand mix. Analysts tracking flows point to steady industrial offtake tied to electrification, energy systems, and technology infrastructure. This demand base operates independently of momentum indicators. 

As one metals strategist asked recently, can sentiment alone unwind consumption linked to power grids and electronics?

Supply Constraints Redefine Downside Risks

Supply dynamics also differ from prior cycles. Industry data confirms that most silver production comes as a by-product of mining for copper, zinc, and lead. Higher silver prices do not quickly translate into new output. In earlier rallies, supply elasticity played a minor role. Today, limited primary production restricts the market’s ability to absorb demand shocks.

As a result, analysts describe potential pullbacks as corrections rather than structural collapses. Sharp price swings remain likely, yet the absence of surplus supply changes how far declines can extend before buyers reappear.

Technical Signals Fuel Price Discovery Debate

Technical analysts highlight the scale of the current move. Monthly chart patterns show silver clearing long-term extension targets, with some models identifying price discovery phases beyond prior highs. 

Source: Ralphkaz via TradingView

Forecasts from algorithmic platforms vary widely. Some projections point to near-term retracement around the low $70s by mid 2026, while longer-term models extend targets well above current levels by 2027. As per CoinCodex, they predict Silver (XAG) to trade from the current $90 → $146.67, (by Feb 15, 2026)

Despite the range of estimates, analysts agree on one point. Volatility has intensified and daily price ranges continue to widen, reinforcing silver’s reputation as a fast-moving asset.

Comparing History Without Copying It

Market historians caution against assuming identical outcomes from similar charts. Parabolic advances signal rising risk and crowded positioning, yet they do not dictate a single ending. Markets often correct through time, form broad ranges, or retrace only part of a move.

Data from past cycles supports that view. The 1980 collapse followed forced concentration unwinds. The 2011 decline followed reversible financial demand. Current conditions show neither dynamic in isolation. Silver remains volatile, but analysts emphasize that volatility alone does not define fragility.

As prices probe new territory, the comparison to past bull runs continues. The structure behind today’s rally, however, tells a different story, one shaped by demand resilience, supply limits, and ongoing price discovery.