XRP Whale Inflows Drop to 2021 Lows While Price Slips — What’s Brewing?

XRP is trading almost 2% lower than it started the day. However, the candle for the current day indicates it rebounded a few hours ago.

A close at the current price will mark the asset’s third consecutive day of decline. The downtrend that started on Wednesday has seen the coin shed over 5%. Additionally, it registered a new fourteen-day low a few hours ago.

The 1-day chart shows that XRP has lost all of the gains it accumulated on Tuesday. As a result, it prints a doji on the 1-week scale.

Something’s Brewing Onchain

Aside from the decline in price, something else is brewing on-chain. An Arab chain reported on Thursday that whale inflows into Binance have significantly decreased over the last 30 days. He cited the “Whale Transfer Flow (30DMA) indicator previously fell to 48 million XRP, before rebounding slightly to 56.1 million XRP.”

The market analysts added that the current inflow level is the lowest recorded since 2021. In conclusion, Arab chain said, “Looking back to 2021, the last time inflows reached similarly low levels was during periods that preceded strong upward trends.”

True to his word, analysts use the inflow metric to measure whale sentiment. A higher inflow to exchanges indicates growing bearish sentiment, while a drop in this metric depicts increased bullish conviction.

If history repeats, XRP could be gearing up for another massive surge in the coming days. It may flip its all-time high once it starts.

However, using 2025 as a case study shows that a period of decreased whale inflow does not always guarantee an impending surge.

The chart above depicts several instances when the whales went silent, or XRP registered a drop in exchange inflow. For example, between Sep 12 and Oct 2, exchange inflows were at their lowest, but prices barely surged after. A massive selloff followed, pushing prices even lower.

Conversely, before the June-July surge, the metric under consideration was high but began to slow as the surge began. In a nutshell, while reduced inflows may occur during the accumulation period, other factors could influence price action afterward.

XRP ETFs — The First Factor

XRP had a massive ETF outflow last Wednesday. The US spot exchange-traded funds had a combined net outflow of $41 million, with 21Shares’ TOXR accounting for more than 80% of the total exit.

Other funds, such as Canary, Bitwise, and Grayscale, recorded an average net outflow of $2 million during this period. According to SoSovalue, ETFs tied to the third-largest coin printed their first red bar since inception, ending their 36-day streak.

The effect of the first day, when ETF sellers outnumbered buyers, was glaring in spot prices. XRP retraced from $2.30 to $2.14 in response. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the ETF outflow was not the only responsible factor for the price decline.

The global cryptocurrency market was negative, and the altcoin followed suit. However, the event with the investment funds exacerbated its decline.

XRP lost over 6% on Wednesday. but has yet to recover. The downtrend extended into Thursday. As a result, the asset is currently trading down by almost 4%.

However, ETF inflows resumed the next day. Data from SoSovalue showed that inflows would exceed $12 million over the next two days.

The bullish trend continues into the current week, with a net inflow of $15 million on Monday. Since the first day, investment funds tied to XRP have registered an average net influx of $13 million.

Nonetheless, price action last Wednesday and the rest of the week paints a grim picture of how prices may play out once ETF outflows resume. In such a case, the current action will barely have any effect on prices.

The Altcoin Awaits Confirmation

On the 1-week chart, several indicators are currently printing green signals. It is worth noting that these metrics flipped bearish a few weeks ago. One such is the moving average convergence divergence, which had a negative crossover in the first week of September.

However, it halted its downtrend in the week starting Dec 29 and shows signs of an impending positive convergence. Nonetheless, price action over the last two weeks has kept the 12 EMA flat, as the asset has failed to register any significant improvement.

While MACD convergence may signal an impending uptrend, a crossover is not yet guaranteed. A closer look at the chart shows that the altcoin tested a key level last week. It attempted bollinger’s middle band but failed to break above it.

Following its rejection at the mark, XRP has grappled with significant selling pressure. Although it had a notable uptick a few days ago, it failed to attain the previous week’s high, indicating dwindling buying pressure.

The current trend is especially concerning, as during the bear market, assets tend to trend between bollinger’s lower and middle bands. If the third-largest fails to surge over the next two weeks, it would confirm that the dreaded bearish period is here.

In addition to confirming the bears’ market, it would also alter MACD’s ongoing convergence. As for prices, the altcoin will continue to plummet in the coming days.

XRP Flips Bearish on the 1-day Chart

While the moving average convergence awaits confirmation on the 1-week chart, it is undergoing a bearish crossover on the 1-day chart. The 12- and 26-EMA are currently in contact and could diverge on Saturday, signalling further declines.

Aligning with the bearish readings from MACD, the bollinger bands showed a breakout last week. XRP trended above the bands last Monday and Tuesday, but dropped below the upper band the next day.

The asset has since traded above the middle band but slipped below it a few hours ago. It has rebounded and is currently trending above the SMA. However, printing another candle below the middle band would increase the likelihood of a drop to the lower band at $1.80.

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