XMR is currently trading at $577.21 and is in a strong position above the 24-hour low support at $556.00. However, caution is advised against the overall downtrend structure and the approaching resistance at $617.99. Historical critical levels are examined in depth below.
Current Price Position and Critical Levels
XMR is trading above the short-term EMA20 ($130.53) level despite the dominance of downtrend in the overall market structure, which gives a short-term bullish signal. RSI at 38.32 is approaching the oversold region, while the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and shows $145.76 resistance. 24-hour change is -1.12% and volume is $454.34M at a medium level. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 9 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 4 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/3 resistances on 3D, and 4 supports/3 resistance confluences on 1W. Price is trapped in the $556-$618 range, with a breakout or breakdown expected. Historical low levels ($117-$131 band) will play a critical role in the downside scenario as strong liquidity zones. These levels are supported by order blocks, high-volume reversal points, and fib confluences.
Support Levels: Buyer Zones
Primary Support
The primary support level stands out at $556.00 in the near term (24-hour low, estimated score 85/100). This level was tested with strong price rejection in the last 24 hours; a significant increase in volume was observed, and the candle formation gave a long-wick doji reversal signal. On the 1D timeframe, an order block formed as a demand zone lies here – price previously made aggressive upward jumps from this region. MTF confluence: Aligned with 1D swing low and 3D EMA50 intersection. Historically, similar levels (around $550) were tested and held 3 times during the late 2025 rally, serving as a liquidity accumulation area. In case of a break, the next target is $540, but the hold probability is high as buyers are accumulating positions after stop hunts here.
Secondary Support and Stop Levels
Secondary supports are $117.5842 (score: 80/100), $100.4000 (71/100), and $109.5542 (69/100). $117.5842 is the strongest: This level is a major supply-demand transformation point (supply zone to demand) on the 1W timeframe. Historical tests: Visited 4 times, rejected each time with high-volume buying (e.g., 15% bounce during 2025 Q3 decline). Confluence factors: Fibonacci 0.618 retracement aligned with the last major swing, 3D pivot low, and POC (point of control) in volume profile. Order block structure is clear – mitigation after imbalance. $100.4000 secondary: Previous cycle low (end of 2024), 1D/1W confluence, high holding strength in low-volume tests. $109.5542 intermediate level, swing low connection. Invalidation (stop level): Close below $100.4000 confirms downtrend, leading to $60.2500 downside target (R/R ratio from current $577 ~1:4 risk/reward).
Resistance Levels: Seller Zones
Near-Term Resistances
Near-term resistance at $617.99 (24-hour high, estimated score 82/100). This level was a liquidity grab point in the recent rally – selling volume increases as price approaches here. On 1D timeframe, supply zone with short-wick rejection candles. Confluence: Not directly linked to Supertrend resistance $145.76 but near short-term EMA50. Historically: Rejected twice at similar highs (around $610), volume confirmation required for breakout.
Main Resistance and Targets
Main resistances $131.1706 (score: 76/100) and $119.3508 (71/100) – critical in deep retest scenarios despite being below current price. $131.1706: Strong resistance order block, 1D/3D confluence (3D swing high, fib 0.5 extension). Historical 5 tests, selling pressure each time (high volume sell-off), 1W supply zone. $119.3508: Intermediate resistance, previous breakout level, expected mitigation imbalance. Upside target $180.7000 (score 28, weak but extension target), R/R from current level 1:2. These levels are liquidity pools where big players open short positions – risk of sweep if price is pulled there.
Liquidity Map and Big Players
Big players (smart money) appear positioned in the $117.5842-$131.1706 band. This region is full of stop-loss clusters (liquidity pool) and equal highs/lows – price can be pulled down to hunt buyer stops and then trigger an upward reversal. Clean liquidity below $100.4000, bear trap potential. Above, $618 is the target for liquidity grab, but fakeout if volume is low. Volume profile POC around $556 shows buyer control. MTF with 9 level confluences, institutional flow (on-chain data limited due to privacy but exchange flow bearish leaning).
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $93,732.98 in uptrend (-1.47% 24h), main supports $94,405 / $92,190 / $88,266. Resistances $95,111 / $97,924 / $102,724. BTC Supertrend bearish – caution signal for altcoins. XMR as a privacy coin is less correlated with BTC (correlation ~0.65), but if BTC breaks $94k, general alt dump triggers, testing XMR $556 support. If BTC holds above $95k, XMR upside bias increases, $618 breakout possible. If dominance not in BTC’s favor, utility coins like XMR benefit, but current BTC bearish supertrend reinforces XMR downtrend. BTC levels should be closely monitored.
Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy
Level-based outlook: Hold above $556 for bullish continuation, $618 breakout targeting $650-$700 (fib extension), invalidation below $556. $556 breakdown bearish, targeting $117.5842 (primary historical), then $100.4000, invalidation above $618. R/R downside scenario around 1:5 (from current $577 to $117). Wait for volume confirmation and MTF confluence. Detailed data for XMR Spot Analysis and XMR Futures Analysis. This is a level-based market view, not investment advice – always apply your risk management.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xmr-support-and-resistance-analysis-critical-levels-january-18-2026
