Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction
Volume Profile and Market Participation
UNI’s 24-hour trading volume reached 208.76 million dollars. This indicates participation above the 7-day average volume (approximately 180 million dollars), but on a day when the price dropped by %6.69, this volume confirms the dominance of sellers. In the volume profile examination, high-volume down days stand out within the current downtrend. Market participants appear to have turned to selling as the price fell below EMA20 (5.50 dollars), but with this volume increase while RSI has declined to 35.53, does it reflect the “capitulation” phase of an asset approaching the oversold region or just the cleaning out of weak hands?
In the volume profile, there are 12 strong levels detected in the last 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/4 resistances in 1D, 2 supports/3 resistances in 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances in 1W. This distribution shows resistances are predominant, highlighting challenges for upward movements. Today’s participation above average volume supports the price action, but in the overall profile, Value Area High (VAH) is stuck around 5.17 dollars. This suggests market participants are seeking value in the 4.90-5.17 range, but increasing volume on downside breaks indicates conviction has shifted in favor of sellers. For a healthy volume profile, we would expect decreasing volume on pullbacks; here the opposite is observed, which strengthens bearish conviction.
Accumulation or Distribution?
Accumulation Signals
Elements signaling accumulation phase are limited, but promising signals exist. As the price approaches the 4.62 dollar support (score 74/100), there is no significant volume decrease, but combined with the RSI oversold signal, the possibility of strong hands (institutional) buying at low levels increases. Low-volume sideways consolidations in recent weeks (e.g., 4.89-5.17 range) evoke hidden accumulation schemes. Volume-price divergence comes into play here: if volume stays 15% lower than previous drops while price makes new lows, it would be proof of accumulation. Current MTF levels (especially 1W supports) may imply that big players have positioned to hold these levels.
Educational note: In accumulation, volume stays dry during price drops and explodes on upward jumps. This pattern is not yet clear in UNI, but watch for volume dry-up at the 4.62 support.
Distribution Risks
Distribution warnings are more prominent. Today’s 208M volume supports the 6.69% drop with high conviction – a typical distribution sign. Volume climaxes have been seen at resistances (5.17 score 73/100, 5.42 score 67/100); volume swells when price hits these levels and then pulls back. This signals smart money closing positions. Combined with MACD’s negative histogram and Supertrend bearish resistance (5.93), the 6.79 target remains distant. If volume stays consistently high (above average) in the downtrend, it could lead to a bearish target of 3.075 (score 22).
Price-Volume Harmony
Price action is largely in harmony with volume: volume increase in the downtrend confirms bearish momentum. However, there is a subtle divergence – volume stayed lower than expected when price sharply broke below EMA20 (compared to previous down candles). This may signal an “unhealthy” drop; meaning sellers could be exhausting. For a healthy bear move, volume should increase on drops and decrease on rises; in UNI, the opposite weakness signal (high volume on drops) questions conviction. Tomorrow’s test of 4.62 is critical: low volume would indicate bullish divergence, high volume confirmation.
Volume confirmation rule: Volume should support trend continuation. Here there is bearish confirmation, but with oversold RSI, reversal risk is high.
Big Player Activity
Big player patterns are read from MTF volume levels. In the 1W timeframe, 3 resistance levels show institutional selling pressure – likely hedge funds reducing positions. However, volume clusters at 1D supports (4.62, 4.89) carry absorption signs; meaning buyers step in as sell stops are triggered. In DeFi tokens like UNI, institutional activity usually stays hidden with volume spikes. Volume increases during night hours in the last 3 days (Asia session) imply whale movements. We don’t know exact positions, but patterns favor distribution – volume dry-up is required for reversal.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at 92,601 dollars level, preserving its uptrend with a 2.70% drop but Supertrend bearish and dominance caution for alts. UNI is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC supports (92,395-90,932) break, UNI could lose 4.62 and slide to 3.07. Conversely, if BTC resistances (94,151+) are surpassed, bullish target 6.79 opens for UNI. BTC dominance increase (current bearish supertrend) accelerates capital withdrawal from altcoins – UNI volume is sensitive to BTC moves, watch: BTC below 90k = UNI distribution acceleration.
Volume-Based Outlook
Volume-based outlook has bearish bias, but divergences open the door to reversal. Short-term, if 4.62 support fails volume test, 3.07 bear target activates. Long-term, dry volume on drops followed by spike makes 5.17-6.79 bullish. Strategy: Follow UNI Spot Analysis and UNI Futures Analysis. Volume tells the “conviction” story beyond price – currently sellers are ahead, but exhaustion is near. Attention: Volume analysis is probabilistic; manage risk.
Educational summary: Volume profile answers where the market “sees value.” In UNI, VA is expanding at lows – opportunity or trap, volume will decide.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/uni-volume-analysis-january-19-2026-accumulation-or-distribution
