PANews reported on January 19th that, according to Wintermute analysis, the traditional "four-year cycle" of the crypto market has become ineffective, and the marketPANews reported on January 19th that, according to Wintermute analysis, the traditional "four-year cycle" of the crypto market has become ineffective, and the market

Analysis: A recovery in the crypto market in 2026 requires ETF expansion, large-cap market leadership, or a return of retail investor attention.

2026/01/19 22:56

PANews reported on January 19th that, according to Wintermute analysis, the traditional "four-year cycle" of the crypto market has become ineffective, and the market performance in 2025 signifies the industry's shift from speculation to a more mature asset class. The market in 2025 is characterized by extreme concentration. Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) constitute a "capital siege," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but capital has not naturally rotated to the broader market. Over-the-counter trading data shows that the wealth transmission effect from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then to blue chips and altcoins, has significantly weakened in 2025. The average rebound cycle for altcoins has shortened from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days.

The report points out that for the market to break through concentration in 2026, at least one of the following three conditions needs to be met: 1. ETFs and DAT expand their investment scope: Currently, new liquidity is still constrained by institutional channels, and their investable scope needs to be expanded. ETF applications for SOL and XRP have shown early signs of this. 2. Strong rise in large-cap assets: A strong rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum could generate a wealth spillover effect, driving the broader market. 3. Return of retail investor attention: Retail investor attention shifts back from the currently hot stock market themes such as AI and rare earths to the crypto space, bringing new funds and stablecoin minting. The market trend in 2026 will depend on whether the above catalysts can truly channel liquidity beyond at least a few large-cap assets.

Market Opportunity
Capverse Logo
Capverse Price(CAP)
$0.13158
$0.13158$0.13158
+1.46%
USD
Capverse (CAP) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

Let insiders trade – Blockworks

Let insiders trade – Blockworks

The post Let insiders trade – Blockworks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, subscribe ​​“The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” — Gordon Gekko, Wall Street Ten months ago, FBI agents raided Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan apartment, ostensibly in search of evidence that the prediction market he founded, Polymarket, had illegally allowed US residents to place bets on the US election. Two weeks ago, the CFTC gave Polymarket the green light to allow those very same US residents to place bets on whatever they like. This is quite the turn of events — and it’s not just about elections or politics. With its US government seal of approval in hand, Polymarket is reportedly raising capital at a valuation of $9 billion — a reflection of the growing belief that prediction markets will be used for much more than betting on elections once every four years. Instead, proponents say prediction markets can provide a real service to the world by providing it with better information about nearly everything. I think they might, too — but only if insiders are free to participate. Yesterday, for example, Polymarket announced new betting markets on company earnings reports, with a promise that it would improve the information that investors have to work with.  Instead of waiting three months to find out how a company is faring, investors could simply watch the odds on Polymarket.  If the probability of an earnings beat is rising, for example, investors would know at a glance that things are going well. But that will only happen if enough of the people betting actually know how things are going. Relying on the wisdom of crowds to magically discern how a business is doing won’t add much incremental knowledge to the world; everyone’s guesses are unlikely to average out to the truth. If…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 05:16
ZKP Might Be The Next 100x Crypto You Should Watch While ETH Demand Builds, & XRP Stalls in January

ZKP Might Be The Next 100x Crypto You Should Watch While ETH Demand Builds, & XRP Stalls in January

Ethereum price today rises as transactions surge, XRP price consolidates near support, and ZKP’s privacy-first AI design and presale auction create early positioning
Share
coinlineup2026/01/20 09:00
XMR Leads Privacy Rally, SOL Tests Key Resistance, but Experts Say ZKP Crypto Has 600x Breakout Potential

XMR Leads Privacy Rally, SOL Tests Key Resistance, but Experts Say ZKP Crypto Has 600x Breakout Potential

This month, Monero is reclaiming its privacy crown, Solana is testing key technical levels, and Zero Knowledge Proof is quietly building the kind of infrastructure
Share
Coinstats2026/01/20 09:00