Bitcoin Futures OI Grows by 13%, Analysts Spot Cautious Market Shift

TLDR

• Bitcoin futures open interest has increased by 13% since the start of 2026, signaling a cautious return of risk appetite.
• Analysts note that Bitcoin futures OI rose from $54 billion to over $61 billion by January 19, 2026.
• The recent rebound in Bitcoin futures OI follows a sharp 17.5% decline over the past three months.
• Bitcoin options open interest has surpassed futures OI, reaching $75 billion, indicating a shift in market strategy.
• The recovery in Bitcoin futures OI is still modest, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains gradual.

Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has risen by 13% since the beginning of the year, signaling a cautious return of risk appetite among crypto traders. After a sharp decline in the last quarter of 2025, OI in Bitcoin futures appears to be on the rebound. Analysts are observing this trend as a potential sign of increased market confidence.

Bitcoin Futures OI: A Gradual Recovery

Bitcoin futures OI dropped sharply by 17.5% from 381,000 BTC to 314,000 BTC over the past three months. This decline occurred after a roughly 36% price correction from early October. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the decrease was a result of a broad market correction and risk reduction.

However, the recent increase in Bitcoin futures OI is notable. As of January 19, Bitcoin futures OI has grown from $54 billion on January 1 to over $61 billion. On January 15, OI reached an eight-week high of $66 billion.

While the rebound is modest, it indicates a potential shift in market dynamics. A sustained upward trend in OI could support further bullish momentum, according to analysts. Despite the recovery, OI remains far below its all-time high of $92 billion in early October 2025.

Deleveraging Indicates Stronger Market Foundation

Bitcoin futures OI has decreased by 33% from its all-time high, signaling a period of deleveraging. Deleveraging can help reset the market, providing a stronger foundation for future growth. Darkfost noted that this process is often seen at significant market bottoms.

Such a decline in OI can lead to a more stable market, as it reduces the risk of forced liquidations. Bitcoin derivatives exposure fell during the last quarter of 2025, following the broader market correction. This deleveraging phase helped stabilize the market, setting the stage for potential recovery.

Bitcoin options OI has now exceeded that of futures, with the former standing at $75 billion compared to $61 billion in futures. Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin observed that this shift represents a growing preference for options in the market. He explained that options provide more flexibility, as traders are not obligated to liquidate positions like in futures.

The highest Bitcoin options OI is currently at the $100,000 strike price, with $2 billion on Deribit. This indicates that traders are building positions that influence market price through hedging and expiry mechanics. Puckrin stated, “Bitcoin’s market is behaving less like a casino and more like a structured financial system.”

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