Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction
Volume Profile and Market Participation
PENDLE’s current volume profile indicates weak market participation. The trading volume in the last 24 hours is 43.95 million dollars, which is 24% lower compared to the approximately 58 million dollar average over the last 7 days. This suggests that while volume hasn’t dried up despite the 6.05% price drop, it also hasn’t created strong selling pressure. Examining the volume profile, high-volume nodes on the 1D timeframe are concentrated in the $2.10-$2.31 range – forming a resistance zone just below the EMA20.
From a general market participation perspective, the low volume persisting during the downtrend suggests that sellers’ conviction is waning. In a healthy downtrend, volume should increase and participation expand as price falls; however, the opposite is observed here. This implies that retail selling is dominant, while big players are staying on the sidelines. As the Value Area Low (VAL) in the volume profile approaches the $1.91 support, we see that market participants lack sufficient motivation to test this level. For comparison, in previous down waves (e.g., end of December 2025), volume had spiked above 70M – today’s low volume could be an early signal that the trend is exhausting.
Accumulation or Distribution?
Accumulation Signals
Accumulation signals are present: As price pulls back to $1.97, volume remains below average, resembling the classic ‘low-volume test’ pattern. Volume spikes around the $1.9140 support (score 68/100) have decreased, suggesting sellers may be exhausting. MTF volume levels (11 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W) show low-volume nodes indicating accumulation at supports – for example, long-tailed volume traces at $1.6550 on the 3D timeframe. With RSI at 42.57 approaching oversold, a volume divergence is forming: Price makes new lows while volume stays lower than previous lows, a signal supporting smart money accumulation. If volume stabilizes here, accumulation could complete toward the $2.04 resistance.
Distribution Risks
Distribution warnings should not be ignored either. With Supertrend bearish and price below EMA20 ($2.10), volume increases are seen at resistances ($2.0447, score 67/100) – suggesting big players might be closing positions. On the 1W timeframe, 5 resistance levels (mostly R) outline a profile ready for distribution. If there’s an uptick in volume with a negative MACD histogram, there’s a risk of quick slippage to $1.6550. In previous rallies ($3.07 peak), volume distribution was similar: Low volume on the rise, spike at the peak. The current low volume could be the early stage of hidden distribution – stay cautious.
Price-Volume Harmony
Does volume confirm the price action? Short answer: No, divergence dominates. In the downtrend, price dropping 6% while volume stays low indicates an unhealthy trend – in a healthy bear, volume expands on downmoves. On up moves (recent rebound from $1.91), volume is dry, lacking conviction. This implies price is falling on low volume, meaning sellers are weak. Example: Clear volume rejection at $2.31 Supertrend resistance, dry volume as price breaks down – classic bear trap potential. Even with bearish RSI and MACD, volume-price divergence could signal a bullish reversal. Don’t trust price action without volume confirmation; here, volume suggests the price might be a ‘fake drop’.
Big Player Activity
Big player activities are unclear but there are clues. High volume nodes in the volume profile ($2.22-$3.07) show institutional-level interest, but delta has been negative recently (sell volume > buy). On-balance volume (OBV) is flattening during the decline, meaning institutions aren’t net selling – likely waiting for accumulation. Whale wallet movements (per on-chain data) show increased buys at $1.91 support, but exact positions are unknown. Large block trades have decreased, with retail dominance. Healthy pattern: Spike after low-volume shakeout – current phase seems like preparation for that. With institutions cautious at $93K BTC, they might be eyeing opportunities in PENDLE.
Bitcoin Correlation
Despite BTC at $93,168 in an uptrend (-2.35% 24h), PENDLE is lagging at -6%, showing negative decoupling. BTC Supertrend bearish warning poses risk for altcoins: If BTC breaks $93,012 support, PENDLE slides to $1.65. BTC resistances at $93,875-$95,556 should be watched – if BTC breaks out upward, PENDLE correlation returns, activating $2.80 target. With BTC dominance Supertrend bearish, alts are weak; PENDLE volume correlates lowly with BTC volume, so no rally expected under BTC leadership. Key: If BTC holds $90,960 support, PENDLE recovers; otherwise, bearish targets ($1.03) take precedence. BTC movements dominate PENDLE, await volume confirmation.
Volume-Based Outlook
Volume-based outlook is cautiously optimistic: Low-volume downmove signals accumulation, rebound to $2.04-$2.22 if $1.9140 holds (bull target $2.80). Remains short-term bearish without volume increase, $1.65 risk (bear target $1.03). Strategy: Monitor volume spikes – long if up volume > down, short otherwise. Check detailed data in PENDLE Spot Analysis and PENDLE Futures Analysis. Volume tells the story beyond price: Trend is tiring, participation will determine conviction.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/pendle-volume-analysis-january-19-2026-accumulation-or-distribution
