High European saving rates weigh on consumption – NOMURA

Elevated household saving rates across Europe are dampening consumption growth, with potential GDP gains of 1–2% if savings revert to pre-pandemic levels, NOMURA’s economists report.

ECB, BoE forecast growth assuming savings normalize

“Across Europe, saving rates remain elevated, and consumption growth is lackluster. If saving rates normalize to pre-pandemic levels, it would likely add 1-2% to GDP. The ECB and BoE assume that saving rates will fall, adding to GDP growth forecasts for the future, but both highlight risks that savings will remain persistently high.”

“We expect saving rates to decline due to lower interest rates, demographics, the ability to draw on recent savings, and policy changes; however, we highlight that structural factors likely make households permanently more predisposed to saving than pre-pandemic.”