Analysis: Given the current macroeconomic situation, Bitcoin may fall to the $58,000 to $62,000 range within two weeks.
PANews reported on January 20th that, according to CoinDesk, veteran trader Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, predicts Bitcoin could fall to the $58,000 to $62,000 range within two weeks. Several market analysts warn that current macroeconomic conditions, including the risk of escalating tariffs in Europe and the US and geopolitical tensions, have paved the way for a Bitcoin decline.
Brandt pointed out on social media that Bitcoin's key resistance level is around $102,300, and it remains in a bearish trend. Analyst Jason Fernandes believes this target is technically achievable, but the driving factor is the macroeconomic environment rather than a simple chart pattern. He emphasized that although US inflation is below 2%, central bank policy remains cautious, and any escalation of tariffs or geopolitical tensions could push inflation back up and postpone interest rate cuts. As long as interest rates remain restrictive and liquidity is limited, the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the mid-$55,000 range remains. Mati Greenspan, founder of quantum economics, also agrees with Brandt's probability assessment, pointing out that after years of Fed liquidity tightening and the worst economic environment in decades, the impact of macroeconomic conditions may outweigh any single chart pattern. Options market data shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before June is approximately 30%.
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