Apple Stock Rises on iPhone Surge and Market Share Gains in China

TLDR

• Apple reported a 28% increase in iPhone shipments in China during Q4 2025.
• The company’s market share in China rose to 21.8% from 16.8% a year earlier.
• Apple secured the top position in the Chinese smartphone market by unit shipments.
• Wall Street analysts expect Apple stock to rise by 17.04% in 2026.
• Price targets from firms like Wedbush and Evercore ISI reached as high as $350.

Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL) gained fresh momentum as iPhone shipments in China surged 28% in Q4 of 2025, increasing its market share from 16.8% to 21.8% and securing the top smartphone vendor spot, though shares have dropped 5.72% year-to-date in 2026, closing at $255.52 on January 16.

Apple Inc., AAPL

While Wall Street expects the stock to rise 17.04% to $299.06, recent price targets stretch to $350, reinforcing investor interest. This performance highlights renewed strength in Apple’s core smartphone business as forecasts remain optimistic despite broader industry concerns.

iPhone Shipments Jump in China

Apple shipped more iPhones in China during the holiday quarter of 2025 than any other vendor. Its market share rose to 21.8% from 16.8% one year earlier, securing the top position in the region.

This surge came during a period when overall market conditions remained tough for global competitors. Apple’s consistent demand stood out while peers struggled to grow in the world’s largest smartphone market by volume.

Analysts now view China as a major growth engine for Apple stock this year. “Apple continues to dominate the premium tier in China,” said Wedbush analysts in a recent client note.

This strong performance supports a bullish outlook even before full deployment of Apple Intelligence features. The iPhone’s growth shows Apple’s hardware strength remains key despite rising software and services ambitions.

Apple Stock Forecasts Rise After China Growth

Wall Street remains optimistic with an average 12-month price target of $299.06 for Apple stock. Wedbush set a target of $350, while Evercore ISI placed its forecast at $330 per share.

These upward revisions followed the Q4 China results, which exceeded expectations in terms of unit growth. Though shares rose 14.77% over the past 12 months, they declined 5.72% year-to-date as of January 16.

Despite the short-term dip, forecasts remain strong due to Apple’s regained smartphone dominance. Investors expect momentum from China to influence early 2026 earnings and revenue performance.

Analysts highlight stable hardware sales and service revenue as dual pillars for long-term growth. Apple’s steady market leadership in key regions continues to drive positive sentiment around the stock.

Supply Concerns May Affect Smartphone Momentum

A new challenge emerged as Micron warned of an ‘unprecedented’ memory chip shortage. This shortage could affect smartphone makers, including Apple, throughout 2026 and beyond.

Micron cited heavy demand from AI data centers as a factor reducing chip availability for phones. The strain may disrupt production timelines and delay new model releases across major manufacturers.

Such supply risks could impact margins or shipment volumes in the upcoming quarters. However, Apple has not yet issued a statement addressing potential disruptions linked to this shortage.

Despite this risk, recent gains in China may offset early production-related headwinds. Apple stock last traded at $255.52 on January 16, with expectations pointing toward recovery in coming quarters.

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