Traders See a 30% Chance of Bitcoin Falling Below $80,000 by the End of June

• Traders put the odds of bitcoin falling below $80,000 by June 26 at 30%.
• The bearish expectations are tied to geopolitics and Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric.

Options market traders expect bitcoin to fall below $80,000 by mid-2026. The probability of that scenario is estimated at 30%. CoinDesk reported this, citing data from the Derive and Deribit options platforms.

The statement says that high open interest in put options targeting $75,000–$80,000 points to a likely drop. Note that a put option gives the right to sell an asset at a fixed price by a specified date. It is the opposite of a call option, which gives the right to buy an asset at a specified price before the contract expires.

CoinDesk also noted that the options skew indicator, which measures the difference between call and put option pricing, remains negative — pointing to a dominance of bearish sentiment.

Analysts link the correction to new geopolitical risks. According to Dawson, US President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on imports from Europe, particularly against the backdrop of the situation around Greenland, could drive volatility higher. 

Recall that in early 2026, traders expected the leading cryptocurrency to climb to $100,000 as early as January.