Ethereum’s key indicator shifts to ‘predominance’- Is an ETH rally incoming?

Ethereum is showing signs of leading the market again, similar to the pattern seen in Q2 2025.

According to the blockchain analytics firm Swissblock, a key market cycle indicator flipped to ‘predominance’ (blue), suggesting a potential monster rally for ETH. 

The yield demand catalyst

Here, it is worth noting that the staking demand (hunt for ETH’s 3% yield) has reached a record 47% of the overall supply (77.85 million ETH).

In fact, the staking entry queue has outpaced the exit queue, further reinforcing the overwhelming appetite for yield, especially from institutions. 

In the past few weeks, BitMine, the leading ETH treasury firm, has staked 1.7 million ETH ($5.56 billion), over a third of its total ETH holdings.

And U.S. spot ETH ETFs, which currently hold nearly 10% of the total supply, have filed to add staking, which could further fuel demand. 

The result of the staking craze? Less and less available Ethereum [ETH] to be dumped on short notice.

In such a scenario, any positive macro landscape or market-specific update could trigger a massive run for the altcoin, with little profit-taking to hold it back. 

Will tariffs spoil ETH’s setup?

In the past week, the U.S. spot ETH ETFs also attracted massive demand. According to CoinShares, ETH and Ripple [XRP] led last week with $496 million and $69 million in inflows, respectively. 

However, renewed tariff escalation against European Union member countries amid the U.S. stance on Greenland soured market sentiment last Friday.

So far this week, the crypto market has continued to reverse its recent gains as investors turn into risk-off mode. 

In fact, even the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks overall U.S. retail demand for ETH, reversed after last week’s attempted recovery.

Unless the index flips positive, a sustainable ETH recovery may remain elusive in the short term.

From a price chart perspective, the above data sets suggest ETH may remain below the trendline unless broader sentiment shifts and tariff risk is cleared. 

The trendline support held ETH’s decline in H2 2025 but was cracked in late November as Bitcoin lost the $100k psychological level.

Now it has become a resistance, and clearing the hurdle may be the only way to confirm the path forward for ETH bulls again. 

Final Thoughts 

• ETH flashed a key ‘predominance’ market cycle signal that may suggest a potential rally in the near to mid-term. 
• However, new tariffs and macro headlines risk derailing such an outlook and keeping Ethereum below $3.3k for a while.