LTC Weekly Analysis Jan 21

Litecoin exhibits weak momentum at the $68.99 level with a 1.79% weekly decline, while the primary downtrend structure remains intact; holding the critical $65 support zone will play a key role for potential accumulation signals.

Weekly Market Summary for LTC

Litecoin experienced narrow consolidation in the $65.90 – $70.47 range last week and closed the week at $68.99 with a 1.79% decline. Volume profile remained low at $354.21M, indicating market participants are cautiously seeking direction. RSI at 34.51 is approaching oversold territory, while MACD’s negative histogram confirms bearish momentum. Failure to hold above EMA20 ($75.39) signals short-term trend under downward pressure. In the broader macro context, Bitcoin’s downtrend exerts additional pressure on altcoins; as an asset with high BTC correlation, LTC is directly affected by this cycle. For position traders, the main focus is whether the trend structure breaks and the potential for transitioning to an accumulation phase.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure shows a clear downtrend character on weekly and monthly charts. On higher timeframes (1W/1M), price is moving within a falling channel with lower highs and lower lows. The trend filter gives a bearish signal, with $79.76 resistance as the main barrier. From a market cycle perspective, the distribution phase dominates following the rally at the end of 2025; however, low RSI levels like 34.51 indicate oversold conditions, implying a potential trend inflection point. Market structure depends on breaking $71.05 resistance before reaching the $95.32 upside objective. Downside risk extends to $45.65, making the R/R ratio critical for strategic positioning.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume profile and order flow analysis show potential accumulation traces in the $65.90 – $68 range, but overall distribution patterns dominate. Weekly candlestick formations (dojis and spinning tops) reflect indecision. POC (Point of Control) remained low at $354.21M volume, suggesting smart money is sidelined. For accumulation phase characteristics, strong holding of $65.1371 support (score: 73/100) is essential; in case of breakdown, distribution accelerates and the $45.65 downside target activates. The current phase resembles a test stage of the ‘spring and test’ Wyckoff pattern; holding could create confluence for transition to accumulation.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, price remains below EMA20 and has been rejected at $71.0584 resistance (score: 74/100). The 1D timeframe shows limited confluence with 1 support/1 resistance level; RSI divergence potential is observed. While price consolidates at $68.99, the MACD histogram is narrowing – this could herald a momentum shift. Main support at $65.1371 aligns with daily lows; breakdown would trigger bearish continuation candles. Detailed data for LTC Spot Analysis can be accessed here.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, the downtrend remains intact; a resistance-heavy structure prevails with 3 supports/4 resistances (total 13 strong levels). As long as the weekly close stays below $68.99, the channel’s lower band around $65 will be tested. Supertrend is bearish, and failure to hold above EMA50 ($72.15) indicates a healthy trend. In terms of confluence, 2S/2R levels on the 3D timeframe overlap with weekly; upside remains limited until $71 resistance breaks. LTC Futures Analysis data confirms similar bearish bias in the futures market.

Critical Decision Points

Key levels determining market direction: Major support $65.1371 (73/100 score) – holding creates bullish reversal confluence. Major resistance $71.0584 (74/100 score) – breakout opens $95.32 upside. Secondary levels: $70.47 (weekly high), $65.90 (weekly low). Trend breakdown requires weekly close above $71; below, $65 breakdown activates $45.65 risk. These points are strengthened by multi-timeframe confluence; full list available in LTC and other analyses. To monitor: Volume increase and BTC movements.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

Bullish scenario activates with $65.1371 hold + $71.0584 breakout. First target $79.76 (EMA20), secondary $95.32. Long positions entered above $65 with stop-loss; R/R 1:3+ targeted. Confluence: RSI >50 + MACD crossover. Position traders should wait for weekly close above $71 – this confirms entry into accumulation phase.

In Case of Decline

Bearish scenario triggers on $65.1371 breakdown, with $45.65 downside objective. Shorts taken after $71 rejection, with $71.05 stop. R/R 1:2+ optimized. Additional filter: BTC breakdown below $88K. As long as downtrend intact, distribution continues; position shorts preferred over scalping.

Bitcoin Correlation

LTC shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC downtrend ($89,722, -1.38%) pressures altcoins. BTC Supertrend bearish – if $88,350 support breaks, LTC $65 test accelerates. Conversely, BTC breaking $90,944 resistance brings relief for LTC ($71 target eases). BTC levels to monitor: Supports $88,350/$86,725, resistances $90,944/$92,803. Rising BTC dominance increases LTC relative weakness; position traders should prioritize BTC lead.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week’s focus: $65.1371 support test and $71.0584 resistance reaction. Volume increase + BTC above $90K strengthens bullish bias; $65 breakdown confirms downtrend continuation. Weekly closes critical for market phase change – accumulation signals sought on $65 hold. Strategic patience rewarded by multi-TF confluence.