Solana Whale Dumps 168K SOL, Bearish Momentum Signals Risk of $100 Breakdown

Solana is under mounting downside pressure as a combination of whale selling, weakening technical structure, and negative momentum indicators intensifies the risk of a deeper correction.  

Whale Moves 168,000+ SOL to FalconX, Signaling Intent to Sell

According to Arkham Intelligence data analyzed by Outset PR analysts, a Solana whale transferred 168.47K SOL worth roughly $22.62 million to FalconX. Such movements are often interpreted as an intent to sell, especially when they occur during periods of weakening market structure.

This transfer adds immediate sell-side liquidity into the market and reinforces the bearish sentiment already forming across Solana’s technical charts.

SOL Breaks Below Critical Support Levels

SOL’s breakdown accelerated after the price fell below $136, which aligns with both structural support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the recent swing. The decline also pushed SOL below its 100-hour moving average, triggering automated sell orders and deepening intraday losses.

Analysts now highlight a confirmed descending channel, coupled with a failed retest of the $140 Fibonacci resistance—both classic signals of sustained bearish control.

Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Momentum

Momentum metrics underscore the market’s vulnerability:

• RSI at 45.84: Still neutral, indicating room for additional downside before reaching oversold conditions.

• MACD histogram at -0.28: Bearish acceleration is strengthening, confirming momentum is firmly on the side of sellers.

• Loss of $136 shifts focus to $125.70, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, as the next meaningful support.

The technical landscape offers little immediate relief for bulls unless Solana can reclaim broken resistance.

Key Levels to Watch: $129 and Below

A daily close below $129 would carry significant implications. This level represents the lower boundary of recent consolidation and a structural pivot for medium-term trend direction.
If SOL fails to hold $129:

• Bears may target $120, a psychological and historical support zone.

• A deeper correction could extend toward $100, marking a full retracement of recent gains and a retest of major multi-month support.

Given the current confluence of whale distribution, weakening momentum, and Fibonacci breakdowns, these lower targets are becoming increasingly plausible.

How Outset PR Interprets Market Shifts Through a Data-Driven Lens

The whale transfer and breakdown in Solana’s technical structure also highlight the importance of contextualizing market events—an approach embraced by Outset PR’s data-driven communications methodology.

Outset PR, founded by strategist Mike Ermolaev, connects on-chain developments with narrative trends to shape market-relevant storytelling. Rather than relying on static messaging, the agency operates like a workshop, aligning communications with real-time market momentum.

Using its proprietary Outset Data Pulse, the agency monitors not only on-chain activity but also media trendlines and traffic distribution patterns. This enables precise timing—identifying when a client’s narrative will achieve maximum organic lift.

A major differentiator is Outset PR’s Syndication Map, an analytics system that tracks which publications consistently generate the strongest downstream syndication across platforms like CoinMarketCap and Binance Square. This intelligence allows campaigns to achieve visibility several times higher than their initial placements.

As demonstrated through their analysis of the Solana whale activity, Outset PR’s approach ensures communications remain market-fit, data-backed, and delivered at the moment the audience is most responsive.

Solana Price Outlook: Selling Pressure Mounts 

Solana’s market structure has clearly deteriorated. Whale activity is amplifying existing technical weakness, and momentum indicators suggest sellers still have room to push lower. Unless SOL reclaims $136 and invalidates the descending pattern, traders remain biased toward defensive positioning.

A decisive daily close below $129 could validate aggressive bearish targets into the $120–$100 range, while recovery attempts are likely to face resistance near $136 and $140.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.