ONDO Bearish Analysis Jan 21

ONDO is stuck at the $0.33 level with a 2.68% drop on the daily chart, while RSI has fallen to 32, starting to give oversold signals. Is this a short-term bounce buying opportunity or a continuation of the downtrend? The market is awaiting the test of the critical support at $0.3227.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

ONDO traded in a narrow $0.33-$0.34 band over the last 24 hours, experiencing a 2.68% loss with $73.11 million in volume, continuing its downtrend. This movement reflects the pressure in the broader altcoin market; risk appetite has decreased alongside Bitcoin’s 2.58% drop. The price continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.38), strengthening short-term bearish signals. From a weekly perspective, ONDO’s correction after its rally at the end of 2025 appears to have hit the $0.41 Supertrend resistance.

Market volume shows a slight decrease compared to previous days, but selling pressure dominates. Multi-timeframe confluence has identified 6 strong levels: 1 support/1 resistance on daily, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3-day, and 1 support/3 resistances on weekly. This structure indicates strong downward momentum, but the narrowing volume also suggests a possible consolidation period. Investors should closely monitor ONDO’s spot market position amid general crypto market macro uncertainties.

In the long-term trend, ONDO’s tokenized RWA (Real World Assets) narrative still holds potential, but optimism will remain limited until the short-term downtrend dominance is broken. The price’s horizontal movement around $0.33 can be interpreted as calm before volatility.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The critical support level at $0.3227 (score: 82/100) forms a strong base on the daily chart. This level coincides with Fibonacci retracement 61.8% and weekly lows confluence, reinforced by 2 supports from the 3D timeframe in MTF analysis. In case of a breakdown, the next target could be a drop below $0.30, but this area has held multiple times in the past as a high-volume accumulation zone. Investors should look for volume increase in this region; if it holds, it could signal a short-term recovery.

Resistance Barriers

The first resistance is at $0.3387 (score: 63/100), overlapping with daily EMA10 and serving as the initial obstacle on the path to Supertrend $0.41. Three resistance confluences on the weekly timeframe strengthen this area. Strong buying volume is required for the price to break above here; otherwise, the bearish Supertrend pressure will continue. Upper resistances cluster at $0.38 (EMA20) and $0.41, awaiting volume confirmation for a breakout.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI has declined to 32.06, approaching the oversold threshold; this is setting the stage for a possible divergence or bounce buy within the downtrend. However, momentum has not yet turned positive, with the histogram under negative pressure. MACD shows a widening negative histogram after a bearish crossover, confirming trend strength. In the EMAs layer, the price is below EMA20 ($0.38) and approaching EMA50 ($0.35), maintaining the bearish short-term structure.

The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and highlighting the $0.41 resistance. Volume profile analysis shows a low-volume POC (Point of Control) around $0.33, increasing fragility. Overall trend strength, with ADX 25+, confirms a moderate downtrend; for a bull reversal, RSI above 50 and MACD zero line crossover are necessary. Despite short-term oversold conditions, bearish momentum dominance persists.

Risk Assessment and Trade Outlook

Bullish target $0.4688 (score:6) is low probability but accessible with support holding and BTC recovery; R/R ratio around 1:2. In a bearish scenario, $0.1823 (score:22) is more realistic, triggered by a $0.3227 breakdown. Risks include BTC downtrend and low volume; increased volatility is expected. For leveraged positions in futures, $0.3227 is a critical stop-loss. Balanced outlook: Consolidation if support holds, deep correction likely if broken.

A cautious approach to altcoins is recommended market-wide; while ONDO’s RWA-themed structure is strong long-term, short-term risk/reward tilts bearish. Volume and MTF confluences should be monitored.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is continuing its downtrend with a 2.58% drop to $88,913; Supertrend bearish signal is a red alert for altcoins. ONDO shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+), sensitive to BTC supports at $88,335, $86,529, and $84,681. If BTC loses these levels, ONDO’s $0.3227 breakdown will accelerate. Conversely, if BTC breaks resistances at $90,250, $92,495, and $94,276, ONDO’s $0.3387 breakout could be triggered. Rising BTC dominance deepens altcoin pressure; ONDO investors should prioritize BTC movements.