Smart Money Moves Back Into Bitcoin – What to Expect?

Recent on-chain metrics show a notable behavioral change among Bitcoin’s long-term holders, a group typically associated with cycle-defining accumulation and distribution phases.

After months of steady selling, these investors appear to be stepping back into the market as net buyers, a shift that has historically coincided with major inflection points.

Long-term holders quietly change behavior

Data tracking long-term holder supply suggests that wallets holding Bitcoin for extended periods have reversed course for the first time in roughly seven months. Instead of distributing coins into market strength, these holders are now absorbing supply during periods of weakness.

A similar transition occurred earlier in 2025, when long-term holders moved from net selling to accumulation near the end of a prolonged drawdown. At the time, Bitcoin went on to print only a marginally lower low before reversing sharply and pushing toward new all-time highs. The current setup shows comparable characteristics, with long-term supply flattening and beginning to edge higher while price remains under pressure.

This pattern is often interpreted as a sign that experienced participants view current levels as attractive, even if broader sentiment remains cautious.

Price still struggling to confirm the shift

Despite the improving on-chain picture, Bitcoin’s price has yet to deliver a clear technical confirmation. The asset continues to face selling pressure below the psychologically important $100,000 area, with rallies repeatedly fading before establishing a sustained uptrend.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz highlighted this disconnect, noting that Bitcoin still needs to decisively clear the $100,000-$103,000 range to reassert bullish momentum. Until then, price action may continue to frustrate traders, even as longer-term signals quietly improve.

Novogratz also pointed to broader macro stress signals, including surging gold prices and weakness in long-dated bonds, as signs of deeper instability in the global financial system – conditions that have historically favored hard assets over time, but not always immediately.

A higher low may be forming

From a market structure perspective, the combination of steady long-term accumulation and fading downside momentum raises the possibility that Bitcoin is in the process of forming a higher low within its broader uptrend. While short-term volatility remains likely, the underlying data suggests selling pressure from conviction holders is diminishing.

Analyst CredibleCrypto has emphasized that long-term holder behavior tends to lead price rather than follow it. In previous cycles, similar shifts preceded major reversals, even when sentiment and headlines remained pessimistic.

For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound and vulnerable to macro-driven volatility. However, beneath the surface, the balance of supply appears to be quietly rotating back into stronger hands – a development that could prove significant once price finally breaks free of overhead resistance.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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