ARK Invest Predicts Crypto Market at $28T by 2030, Bitcoin at $1M

Key Insights:

• Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest projected a Bitcoin price prediction of $1 million by 2030 in the latest 2026 Big Ideas report.
• ARK Invest predicts the crypto market could grow to roughly $28 trillion by 2030.
• It stated that U.S.-listed ETFs and corporate treasury buyers lifted their combined share of total supply from about 8.7% to 12% in 2025.

In its latest 2026 Big Ideas report, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest projected a Bitcoin price prediction of $1 million by 2030. The firm linked that view to adoption. It said demand should keep rising as more investors hold BTC as a long-term asset rather than a quick trade.

Beyond Bitcoin, ARK sees an even bigger story taking shape. It projected the wider digital-asset and crypto market could grow to roughly $28 trillion by 2030. Much of that expansion is still anchored in Bitcoin’s adoption curve and the price lift ARK expects to follow.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest Eyes $1M Bitcoin Price Projection By 2030

ARK Invest said the supply math supports its long-term target. According to the research, by 2030, roughly 20.5 million bitcoins should be in circulation. From there, it argued that the pricing comes down to adoption.

If demand grows along the path, ARK said that supply-and-demand math puts Bitcoin in the $950,000 to $1 million range. The bigger change, though, is who owns it. ARK said Bitcoin is starting to behave like the anchor of a new institutional asset class.

ARK pointed to a clear shift in who’s holding Bitcoin. It said U.S.-listed ETFs and corporate treasury buyers lifted their combined share of total supply from about 8.7% to 12% in 2025, which it framed as evidence that deeper, institutional capital is taking up more room.

And that’s not even the most aggressive view the firm has floated. Cathie Wood has pitched a much higher ceiling before. She said last February that Bitcoin could climb to as much as $1.5 million over the same window.

ARK also made it clear that Bitcoin may not be the only engine behind the next leg of growth. The firm said wider use of DeFi, stablecoins, and tokenized real-world assets could expand the whole market.

If that view proves right, ARK believes the biggest gains will accrue to the smart-contract heavyweights. It put Ethereum and Solana at the top of that list. Both could benefit as more users and capital move on-chain and as tokenized real-world activity starts showing up there.

DeFi and Tokenized Real-World Assets May Fuel a $28T Crypto Market, ARK Says

ARK Invest laid out its latest long-range thesis in its Big Ideas 2026 report. The firm said the digital asset market could climb to around $28 trillion by 2030. To get there, it estimated the space would need to grow at roughly a 61% compound annual rate.

In that scenario, ARK expects Bitcoin to carry most of the weight. The firm projected BTC could account for around 70% of the total market, translating to roughly $16 trillion in value.

ARK also pointed to a clear shift in who holds the asset.

ARK said Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like an institutional asset. It pointed to U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs and public companies. They now hold about 12% of the total supply, up from roughly 8.7% in early 2025.

Taken together, ARK’s message was straightforward: crypto is shedding its fringe reputation and starting to resemble a normal part of global finance. The firm argued that Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets are becoming practical tools people can build with, not just trades people gamble on.

ARK also argued the next leg of growth may lean even harder into the top smart-contract networks. It pointed to Ethereum and Solana as two of the clearest beneficiaries, especially if DeFi keeps widening its reach and usage of stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets continues to pick up.

ARK added that this corner of the market could swell into a $6 trillion category by 2030, growing at an estimated 54% a year. It also noted they already generate about $192 billion in annualized revenue, with an average take rate of around 0.75%.

Even then, ARK warned against valuing these tokens like regular stocks. It said the market will likely price them more for their store-of-value and reserve-asset qualities than for discounted cash flows.