Europe’s strategic autonomy may support the Euro – ING

Growing consensus that Europe must chart its own strategic path is expected to underpin the Euro (EUR). EUR/USD may see further upside pressure, though resistance around 1.1770-1.1780 remains key, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD faces resistance near 1.1780

“Events this week have seen most conclude that Europe needs to be the master of its own destiny. This time last year, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was rubbishing NATO and driving Europe into more defence spending and more German fiscal stimulus.”

“Eurozone 10 year swap rates jumped 40bp on this theme last year and quickly dragged EUR/USD some 5% higher. It is hard to see similar-size moves happening again – unless there is some surprise extra fiscal stimulus emerging – but this is a theme that will provide support to the euro on dips.”

“EUR/USD my face another boost. 1.1770/1780 is intra-day resistance. Any unexpected break of resistance at 1.1810 would prompt us to reassess our neutral EUR/USD view this quarter.”