Analysis: Despite recent strong demand for call options, the market continues to reflect asymmetric downside risk.

PANews reported on January 23 that, according to Glassnode analysis, during the Bitcoin rally in mid-January, the one-week 25-day skew was pulled from deep bearish territory to neutral, while the put/call ratio of options trading volume dropped from 1 to 0.4, indicating strong bullish activity. The key issue is not whether call options were being bought, but how short-term this demand actually is. Longer-term skews present a different picture: the one-month 25-day skew only moved from a low of 7% to 4%, still within the bearish asymmetric range; the three-month 25-day skew changed by less than 1.5% and remained firmly in bearish territory, reflecting continued asymmetric downside risk despite recent strong call option demand. This difference suggests that upward demand is real, but concentrated in the short term. Trading volume exists, but risk is not being repriced across all timeframes.

Meanwhile, implied volatility of at-the-money options was sold during the price rise, with gamma sellers taking profits. This volatility behavior is not typical of a sustainable breakout. An ideal breakout requires spot prices to approach key levels, skew across all maturities to strongly point to higher levels, and volatility to be bought; last week's price action did not meet these conditions.