Analysis: The divergence in the price movements of gold and Bitcoin may be related to the Japanese bond market.

PANews reported on January 23 that, according to Delphi Digital analysis, the stagnation of Bitcoin prices while gold prices continue to rise may be due to the Japanese bond market. Typically, rising yields put downward pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, when gold prices rise in tandem with yields, the market is reflecting pricing in policy pressures and balance sheet vulnerabilities, rather than economic growth.

Currently, the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds is at an extreme level, 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. Due to its asset and collateral structure, the Bank of Japan has a significant long-term exposure to Japanese government bonds. Gold is absorbing this market pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices are inversely correlated with the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds, and historically, Bitcoin prices have been under pressure during prolonged periods of rising Japanese yields. If the Bank of Japan intervenes to stabilize the bond market, the pressure premium in gold could be alleviated, thus providing room for a Bitcoin rebound.