Bitcoin to $16 Trillion? ARK Says BTC Could Eat 70% of the Entire Crypto Market

ARK Invest estimated in its “Big Ideas 2026” report that the market for smart contract networks and pure-play digital currencies could reach $28 trillion in total market value by 2030. The firm said these digital assets, which are used as stores of value, mediums of exchange, and units of account on public blockchains, could expand at an annual growth rate of about 61% through the end of the decade.

ARK projected that Bitcoin could account for roughly 70% of the overall market, while the remainder is expected to be dominated by smart contract networks such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Bitcoin Leads ARK’s 2030 Outlook

Under ARK’s forecast, BTC’s market capitalization could rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 63% over the next few years, increasing from nearly $2 trillion to about $16 trillion by 2030.

The investment management firm estimated that the market capitalization of smart contract platforms could grow at a 54% annual rate to roughly $6 trillion by 2030, which is expected to be supported by annualized revenue of about $192 billion at an average take rate of 0.75%. ARK said two to three Layer 1 platforms could take most of that market.

Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin ETFs and public companies held 12% of the total bitcoin supply in 2025, up from 8.7% previously. The firm found that the ETF balances rose 19.7% during the year, increasing from about 1.12 million BTC to almost 1.3 million BTC.

Public company BTC holdings also expanded, after climbing 73% from around 598,000 BTC to approximately 1.09 million BTC.

ARK also observed that BTC’s risk-adjusted returns surpassed those of most other large-cap cryptocurrencies and indexes for most of 2025. It said bitcoin’s average yearly Sharpe Ratio exceeded that of ETH and SOL, and the average of the other nine components in the CoinDesk 10 Index since the latest cycle low in November 2022, the start of 2024, and the beginning of 2025.

It added that Bitcoin has become less volatile as it grows into a safe-haven role.

Only a Few Coins Will Survive?

Additionally, Layer 1 networks were also found to be evolving from revenue-generating platforms into monetary assets. Applying a high-growth revenue multiple of 50x to Ethereum’s network revenue, ARK estimated that more than 90% of Ethereum’s market value is attributed to its role as a monetary asset. On the other hand, ARK stated that Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, which means that around 90% of its valuation is driven by network utility.

The firm added that only a few digital assets will retain monetary properties and serve as liquid stores of value based on its research.

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