Analysis: Due to numerous unresolved macroeconomic risks, cryptocurrency prices may experience fluctuations in the short term.
PANews reported on January 26 that, according to a QCP Asia analysis report, cryptocurrencies came under pressure in early Asian trading on January 26, triggering the liquidation of over $550 million in leveraged long positions, with Bitcoin briefly dipping to $86,000. Safe-haven assets gold and silver continued their upward trend. This risk aversion was primarily driven by a confluence of macroeconomic concerns: Trump's statement that he might impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports, the rising risk of a partial US government shutdown (current funding expires on January 30), and uncertainty surrounding potential coordinated US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the yen. The New York Fed's "currency check" on the USD/JPY exchange rate on Friday further reinforced market concerns about yen depreciation.
Faced with macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto derivatives market has adopted a defensive strategy: put skewness and implied volatility have both increased, and there has been a significant flow of funds shifting long-term put option positions downwards. Looking ahead, implied volatility is expected to remain high against the backdrop of a dense calendar of macroeconomic events (including tech earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision). While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the market will closely watch Powell's guidance on the future policy path. Cryptocurrency prices may experience a volatile pattern in the near term until multiple risks (especially the risk of a government shutdown) become clearer.
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