Paper Loss, Real Growth: Metaplanet Projects 80% Revenue Jump

Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet (TSE: 3350) revised its FY2025 full-year earnings forecast on January 26. The company revealed a ¥104.6 billion ($678 million) Bitcoin impairment loss while raising its operating profit guidance.

The results offer a real-time stress test for the Digital Asset Treasury model, which faced intense skepticism throughout late 2025.

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Bitcoin Impairment Is a Non-Cash Accounting Adjustment

Despite the headline loss, the company upgraded its FY2025 revenue forecast to ¥8.9 billion ($57.7 million), up 31% from its previous estimate of ¥6.8 billion. Operating profit rose 33.8% to ¥6.29 billion ($40.8 million). Stronger-than-expected Bitcoin Income Generation revenue drove the upgrade.

The company marked its Bitcoin holdings to market at each quarter-end under Japanese accounting standards. The resulting impairment was recorded as a non-operating expense, leading to a consolidated net loss of ¥76.6 billion ($497 million).

Metaplanet emphasized that the impairment “is merely an accounting valuation adjustment reflecting temporary price fluctuations at quarter-end and has no direct impact on cash flows or business operations.”

The company also noted a ¥22.6 billion ($147 million) foreign exchange gain from yen depreciation, partially offsetting the Bitcoin loss. The net decrease in Bitcoin NAV recorded in fixed assets amounts to approximately ¥82 billion ($532 million).

Dylan LeClair, Metaplanet’s Director of Bitcoin Strategy, characterized the results as showing “strong momentum in core operations with high transparency,” noting that the impairment loss is non-cash while BTC holdings surged to 35,102 coins.

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20x Increase in Bitcoin Holdings

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury grew dramatically throughout FY2025. Holdings reached 35,102 BTC by year-end 2025, up from 1,762 BTC a year earlier—a nearly 20-fold increase.

BTC Yield—measuring Bitcoin growth per fully diluted share—reached 568% for the full year. Management stated that “capital strategy and Bitcoin acquisition programs have exceeded initial targets.”

During Q4, Metaplanet diversified its funding sources through the issuance of Series B Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock (“MERCURY”) and established a $500 million credit facility, enabling more flexible capital deployment less dependent on share price levels.

A Test Case for the Embattled DAT Model

Metaplanet has been at the center of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) debate since the model began unraveling in late 2025. In October, the company’s enterprise value dipped below its Bitcoin reserves for the first time, a sign of diminishing global investor appetite for the sector. Its mNAV—a metric comparing market cap to crypto holdings—fell below 1.0x, and the stock plunged roughly 80% from its June peak of ¥1,930.

Critics like Jim Chanos dismissed the DAT model as “financial gibberish,” while Galaxy Digital warned that the proliferation of over 200 treasury firms echoed the speculative excesses of 1920s investment trusts. Metaplanet, once trading at eight times the value of its Bitcoin holdings, became a poster child for the sector’s volatility.

FY2026 Outlook: 80% Growth Expected

For fiscal year 2026, Metaplanet projects revenue of ¥16 billion ($104 million), up 79.7% year-over-year, and operating profit of ¥11.4 billion ($74 million), up 81.3%. Of the projected revenue, ¥15.6 billion is expected from the Bitcoin Income Generation business. This suggests that income-generating strategies built atop Bitcoin holdings may prove more resilient than pure accumulation plays.

The company did not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting Bitcoin prices. Final FY2025 figures will be disclosed in the earnings report scheduled for February 16, 2026.