Rising ETH Fundamentals Hint at Ether Price Recovery

Across the Ethereum ecosystem, activity is proving persistent as scaling tools mature and investor interest cycles through cautious optimism and measured risk. In the latest weekly snapshot, the network logged 16.4 million on-chain transactions, while base-layer fees managed to stay sub-$0.20 during periods of peak demand. DEX trading activity across the ecosystem approached the mid-30s in billions of dollars, with a notable share of liquidity funneling through layer 2 networks that continue to improve throughput and user experience. Amid this activity, Ether faced a 15.9% price correction over the seven days ending Sunday, triggering sizable liquidations for bullish leveraged bets and stoking questions about whether a firm support around $2,800, tested in recent months, would hold. Yet the data also points to a potential near-term rebound, with on-chain metrics and derivatives positioning suggesting room for a move higher toward the $3,300 zone.

Key takeaways

• Ethereum recorded 16.4 million weekly transactions, while base-layer fees remained under $0.20 during high-demand periods.
• DEX activity spanning the Ethereum ecosystem reached about $26.8 billion in weekly volume, signaling renewed appetite for on-chain trading.
• Aggregate activity on Ethereum layer-2s surged, with total transactions across L2s reaching 128 million, outpacing totals on rival chains such as BNB Chain and Tron.
• Weekly DEX volumes on Ethereum hit $13 billion, up from roughly $8.15 billion four weeks prior, as the Fusaka upgrade boosted data capacity and introduced batch processing workflows.
• Market dynamics showed a shift from heavy put hedging to a more neutral stance among professional traders, even as price volatility persisted and risk sentiment evolved.

Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) experienced a 15.9% price correction during the seven days ending Sunday. This volatility triggered $910 million in liquidations for bullish leveraged ETH positions, fueling fears that the $2,800 support level—which has held firm for two months—might finally break. Despite this dip in trader confidence, several on-chain and derivatives metrics suggest a potential short-term rally back to $3,300, driven by a blend of higher network activity, improving fee structures, and renewed interest in decentralized trading.

Base layer fees remain a central determinant of demand for a native token, but the narrative is shifting as scaling layers prove capable of handling more load without compromising security. The Ethereum ecosystem has benefited from the momentum of several rollups and sidechains, notably Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism, which have collectively expanded throughput and attracted new users. The result is a more resilient on-chain environment where users can execute cheaper, faster transactions even when overall activity spikes. This trend aligns with the broader industry push toward cost-efficient on-chain operations, a key factor in sustaining long-term network activity.

Notably, Ethereum’s on-chain fees rose by 19% over the past week, while competitors such as Tron and Solana gave back some of their recent gains. More importantly, the total number of transactions on Ethereum layer-2 networks climbed to 128 million, surpassing the combined totals of BNB Chain and Tron. This pattern indicates the ecosystem’s capacity to scale in practice, supporting higher activity without sacrificing user experience or incurring prohibitive costs. The Fusaka upgrade, which went live in December 2025, played a pivotal role by increasing data capacity and introducing transaction batch workflows that streamline user interactions and reduce friction in crowded periods.

Ethereum dominance sticks even as professional traders turn neutral

Ethereum’s dominance in total value locked (TVL) remains a key indicator of investor preference for a decentralized settlement layer, even as other networks like BNB Chain and Solana contest for market share. A broad view of on-chain activity shows that ETH continues to command a strong base of liquidity and usage, underscored by the resilience of on-chain protocols and the growing adoption of layer-2 scaling. In the derivatives space, professional traders appear to be returning to a neutral stance between call and put options after a period of hedging against further losses. This shift suggests a more balanced risk appetite as traders reassess the likelihood of further downside versus upside potential, particularly in the wake of a price dip that tested major support levels.

The derivatives picture also reveals how market psychology shifted around option hedging. The put-to-call ratio on Deribit cooled after a stretch of rising puts, with a notable spike on Sunday after ETH moved through important price thresholds. This dynamic aligns with the view that the market’s risk premium is adjusting to a lower probability of rapid, one-way downside, even as headlines and macro data keep price action choppy.

Outside of price action, macro considerations remain a tailwind and a concern in equal measure. The traditional markets have hovered near major benchmarks, while inflation data and policy expectations continue to shape risk sentiment. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates to 3.25% or lower by July has fluctuated, reflecting a market wrestling with growth, inflation, and the potential for further policy shifts. In this context, ETH’s role as a bridge between decentralized finance and traditional markets underscores the importance of liquidity and reliability in sustaining adoption.

Related: Bitmine’s staked Ether holdings point to $164M in annual staking revenue

Ultimately, the path toward higher prices for ETH will likely depend on sustained DEX activity, incremental increases in on-chain throughput, and clearer regulatory signals that shape ecosystem funding and user onboarding. If the current patterns hold—robust layer-2 adoption, attractive fee dynamics, and continued developer momentum—the market could see a renewed push toward the upper 3,000s in the weeks ahead, with liquidity and participation broadening across the ecosystem.

Ether’s price trajectory continues to be a barometer of overall market sentiment toward decentralized finance and the ongoing push to scale without sacrificing security or broad accessibility. While the week brought volatility, the underlying activity metrics suggest a baseline strength and an ecosystem capable of absorbing demand as users gravitate toward cheaper, faster, and more scalable options for on-chain interaction.

Market data and analysis referenced in this section include the following sources: on-chain transaction counts and fee data from network analytics, layer-2 activity metrics, DEX volume data, and derivatives positioning from Deribit and market data aggregators.

Why it matters

The signals from on-chain activity matter for users, builders, and investors because they illuminate how well Ethereum and its scaling infrastructure are delivering on the promise of a scalable, secure, and accessible decentralized ecosystem. Lower base-layer fees and growing L2 throughput reduce barriers to participation, enabling more users to transact, borrow, lend, and trade without prohibitive costs. For developers, the Fusaka upgrade’s data capacity and batch processing capabilities lower the friction of deploying and using advanced DApps, potentially accelerating product adoption. For traders, the evolving mix of DEX volumes, TVL dominance, and a shifting options landscape provides more nuanced risk signals and new liquidation dynamics to monitor. In short, the health of the Ethereum ecosystem is increasingly tied to both technical upgrades and the depth of liquid markets that can absorb demand in real time.

What to watch next

• Monitor the continued impact of the Fusaka upgrade on network capacity and transaction batching, with updates expected in early 2026 as real-world usage increases.
• Track weekly DEX volumes and layer-2 throughput over the next 4–6 weeks to assess whether the current rebound momentum persists beyond short-term swings.
• Observe the price action near critical levels (e.g., $3,200–$3,300) in relation to changes in liquidity and volatility, as well as shifts in derivatives positioning.
• Follow macro signals and policy discussions, particularly any developments around regulatory frameworks and funding gaps that could affect risk sentiment and market liquidity.

Sources & verification

• Ethereum price data and market metrics: https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price
• Fusaka upgrade details: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-fusaka-upgrade-goes-live-instant-feel-user-experiences
• Nansen macro overview: https://app.nansen.ai/macro/overview
• Laevitas data source: http://laevitas.ch
• FedWatch tool: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

What to watch next

• 3–5 forward-looking checks consistent with the source data (dates, filings, unlocks, governance votes, product launches, regulatory steps).

Why it matters

Overall, the dataset points to a maturing scaling narrative for Ethereum that blends cheaper fees, stronger on-chain throughput, and more active liquidity. This is a signal not just for traders but for developers building on-chain finance, wallets, and user-friendly interfaces that rely on robust transaction pipelines. The ongoing evolution of layer-2 scaling and the ecosystem’s response to price volatility will continue to shape investor confidence, capital allocation, and the pace of innovation in decentralized finance over the coming quarters.