CNN data guru reveals why Melania film likely to be historic box office failure

First Lady Melania Trump's eponymous film is slated to be released in theaters this weekend. But the film is likely to bomb at the box office, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.

In a Tuesday segment on CNN's "OutFront," Enten told host Erin Burnett that there were multiple signs that "Melania" was going to perform poorly on its opening weekend. He noted that prediction markets show that a majority of bettors believe the documentary will gave a score of less than 20 percent on popular film review site Rotten Tomatoes.

"That's not good, Erin. That's not good, being below 20 percent," Enten said. "... And why is it why do they feel that the odds might not be so hot to trot? Well, it comes back to the fact that's the same reason that we don't think that it's going to necessarily be selling out a whole heck of a lot of tickets. Why? Because what's the projection for opening weekend for 'Melania?' It's just one to five million dollars, which is again, not so great."

Enten compared the box office projection to the first lady's film with that of Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11," which is the current highest-grossing documentary of all time. Adjusted for inflation, Moore's film topped $41 million in its opening weekend, dwarfing projections for "Melania."

The CNN analyst underscored his argument by pointing to Amazon's staggering production costs for the film. When accounting for the $40 million Amazon paid Melania Trump for the exclusive rights to the movie, and the $35 million spent on advertising the film, the Jeff Bezos-owned media giant stands to lose tens of millions of dollars on the project.

"And one would think, given their marketing savvy, perhaps they were aware of that," Burnett quipped, before Enten chimed in and noted that Bezos was still making money hand-over-fist with President Donald Trump back in the White House.

"The film 'Melania' might not be doing so hot to trot come this weekend, but Jeff Bezos is doing quite well," he said. "... His wealth —booyah! — up $35 billion since early November of 2024. I think there are some people who might see a connection between that and the money being spent. I'm not necessarily making that connection, but some people certainly are."

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