Wintermute: Bitcoin is trapped in a 60-day range, and record ETF outflows foreshadow selling pressure in the US.

PANews reported on January 28th that, according to Wintertermute analysis, Bitcoin's price has been trapped in the $85,000 to $94,000 range for 60 days, with recent selling pressure in the US market becoming a key factor driving its direction. Although Bitcoin attempted to break through to $97,000 in early January, it lacked follow-through buying support and the price fell back to the middle of the range. Market momentum is closely related to ETF inflows: the strength in January was accompanied by robust ETF inflows, while the subsequent pullback corresponded to record outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs. Meanwhile, the shift from a Coinbase premium to a discount further confirms that US counterparties are net sellers, indicating that institutional capital inflows (through ETFs, corporate treasuries, etc.) have turned negative, putting pressure on the market.

Analysts believe that a successful breakout from the current range requires monitoring whether ETF fund flows and the Coinbase premium turn positive. Only when both indicators reverse can the market truly break through the mid-$90,000 level. This week's numerous macroeconomic events could be catalysts for breaking the deadlock, including: the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, earnings reports from tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple), progress in tariff negotiations, and potential USD/JPY intervention and government shutdown risks. Gold continues to reach new all-time highs, while Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has not yet demonstrated comparable safe-haven appeal in the current market environment. In conclusion, until a valid breakout from the range occurs, close attention should be paid to the $85,000 support level and ETF fund flows. After 60 days of consolidation coinciding with a series of macroeconomic risk events, the market is about to choose a direction.