ASML Stock: Record Orders Push Shares to New Highs on AI Boom

TLDR

• ASML’s Q4 orders reached €13.2 billion, nearly doubling the €6.85 billion analyst forecast
• 2026 revenue guidance increased to €34-39 billion, indicating at least 20% growth over 2024
• EUV machine orders totaled €7.4 billion, representing more than half of quarterly bookings
• Company plans 1,700 job cuts while launching €12 billion share buyback through 2028
• China sales expected to fall from 36% to 20% of total revenue in 2026

ASML Holding shattered expectations with fourth-quarter orders that nearly doubled analyst predictions. The chipmaking equipment giant reported bookings of €13.2 billion versus estimates of €6.85 billion.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The Dutch company’s shares surged 7.5% to €1,309 in Amsterdam trading. This marks a new record high and extends year-to-date gains to 41%.

CEO Christophe Fouquet credited the surge to customer confidence in AI-driven semiconductor demand. ASML makes the lithography machines needed to produce advanced chips for companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel.

AI Infrastructure Drives Equipment Demand

Meta and Microsoft are investing hundreds of billions in data center construction. This spending forces chipmakers to expand capacity rapidly, creating strong demand for ASML’s tools.

More than half of Q4 orders were for extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. These EUV systems generated €7.4 billion in bookings and represent ASML’s most advanced technology.

A memory chip shortage is adding to order momentum. Prices for these components have jumped to unprecedented levels. Analysts expect Samsung and SK Hynix to boost production capacity through 2027.

Barclays predicts SK Hynix will buy 12 EUV machines in 2026 alone. ASML said EUV revenue will rise substantially this year as customers ramp advanced chip production.

Taiwan Semiconductor announced over $52 billion in capital spending for 2026. Much of that investment targets advanced manufacturing requiring ASML equipment.

Revenue Guidance Gets Major Boost

ASML raised 2026 revenue projections to €34-39 billion. The midpoint exceeds analyst forecasts of €35.1 billion and suggests at least 20% growth versus 2024.

Total 2025 net sales reached €32.7 billion. First-quarter 2026 revenue is expected between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion.

CFO Roger Dassen said customers show “more positive” medium-term market assessments. Their confidence stems from stronger views on AI demand sustainability.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the data center buildout “the largest infrastructure project in human history” last week. He estimated trillions in additional investment will be needed.

Restructuring and Shareholder Returns

ASML announced 1,700 job cuts representing 4% of its workforce. Most reductions occur in the Netherlands with some in the United States.

Fouquet said the cuts will make operations more “agile” despite strong performance. The company simultaneously launched a €12 billion share buyback running through December 2028.

China accounted for 36% of Q4 net system sales but is expected to drop to 20% of 2026 revenue. Export restrictions prevent ASML from selling EUV machines or advanced deep ultraviolet tools to Chinese customers.

The equipment ASML ships to China is eight generations behind its most sophisticated models. Chinese chipmakers have been purchasing older equipment for mature chip production.

ASML will stop reporting quarterly bookings going forward, arguing the metric doesn’t accurately capture business momentum.

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