Is SoFi Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings Today?

TLDR

• SoFi Technologies reports Q4 2025 earnings on January 30 with Wall Street expecting $0.12 per share and $977.42 million in revenue
• The stock has climbed 48% in 2025 and has beaten earnings estimates in all eight previous quarters
• Analysts have mixed views with Bank of America rating it Sell at $20.50 while Barclays upgraded its target to $28
• Options traders anticipate an 8.62% move in either direction following the earnings announcement
• Recent $1.5 billion capital raise gives the company flexibility but raises questions about future investment plans

SoFi Technologies reports its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30. The fintech company enters the earnings period with momentum after a 48% stock gain so far in 2025.

SoFi Technologies, Inc., SOFI

Wall Street expects earnings of $0.12 per share, down 58.6% from the same quarter last year. Revenue projections sit at $977.42 million, up from $734 million in the prior-year period. Another estimate pegs consensus at $0.11 per share with revenue of $982.39 million, representing 33.8% year-over-year growth.

The company has a strong track record of beating forecasts. SoFi topped earnings estimates in all eight previous quarters. Over the past two years, it beat EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time.

Analysts have adjusted their outlook heading into the report. Over the last three months, five analysts revised EPS estimates upward with zero downward revisions. Revenue estimates saw eleven upward revisions and just two downward moves.

Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia resumed coverage with a Sell rating and $20.50 price target. The analyst called the recent $1.5 billion capital raise a “modest positive” for providing growth investment flexibility. However, Bhatia remains cautious due to limited upside at current valuations.

Capital Allocation Questions Loom

Barclays analyst Terry Ma takes a different view. Ma increased the price target to $28 from $23 while maintaining a Hold rating. The analyst sees potential in consumer finance stocks for 2026, supported by expectations of a benign credit environment.

Ma believes improving credit conditions could drive loan growth. The analyst also expects the mortgage origination market to recover in 2026, creating another positive factor for the sector.

J.P. Morgan sees potential risks ahead. The investment bank noted downside risk to 2026 EBITDA guidance as SoFi needs to invest in scaling lending and recently launched products like Crypto, Options, and SoFi Plus.

Treasury yields have moved higher since the Q3 earnings call. The 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields increased approximately 10 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively. This generally decreases demand for personal loans and creates a modest headwind.

Loan Trends Under Scrutiny

Loan trends will draw attention this quarter. Analysts want to see signs of pickup in mortgage and personal loan activity. Personal loans remain the company’s largest lending category, while home loan originations show signs of recovery after a prolonged slowdown.

Options traders expect volatility after the results. The at-the-money straddle indicates traders anticipate an 8.62% move in either direction following the announcement.

Wall Street maintains a Hold consensus rating on the stock. The rating includes three Buys, six Holds, and three Sell recommendations. The average price target of $27.00 suggests 10.84% upside from current levels.

The recent equity rounds totaling $3 billion spark questions about management’s plans. Some analysts speculate the capital raise could signal preparation for M&A activity. Others believe the funds will support origination momentum and allow the company to hold more loans on its balance sheet.

J.P. Morgan noted that management typically guides conservatively on Q4 calls and gradually raises guidance throughout the year. The stock trades approximately 7% below its 20-day simple moving average ahead of the earnings release.

Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system grades the stock as Hold, while Wall Street analysts also rate it Hold. However, Seeking Alpha authors view the stock as Buy.

The Q&A portion of the earnings call should provide clarity on capital allocation plans and 2026 guidance. Management commentary on loan origination trends and the impact of rising Treasury yields will also be key focus areas.

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