Super Bowl ad prediction market contracts raise insider trading worry

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, which brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

For many Americans, the best part of the Super Bowl is the commercials. This year, you can make — or lose — money on them, too.

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently have contracts open on which companies will run ads during Super Bowl 60, set for Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California. Users can trade on if Salesforce or Verizon or Coca-Cola will have a Super Bowl spot this year, for example.

While Polymarket’s trades are just a “Yes/No” bet, Kalshi has a few predictions that are a bit more nuanced, such as, “Who will appear in a big game ad before Feb 9, 2026?”, with trades available for Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet and Harry Styles. 

It’s a new wrinkle for the advertising industry’s biggest night. The price of Super Bowl commercials goes higher and higher each year as the Super Bowl’s TV audience keeps rising. Last year’s game was watched by 127.7 million viewers, a record high. That game, broadcast by Fox, generated about $7.5 million per 30-second spot, with 10 or so ads commanding more than $8 million. 

This year, NBC has sold out all of its ad inventory averaging $8 million per 30-second commercial with between five and 10 ads selling for more than $10 million apiece, according to NBC Chairman of Global Advertising and Partnerships Mark Marshall. The closer to the game that a company buys an ad slot, the more it pays. 

According to Marshall, technology companies have bought the most spots across this year’s slate, though NBC defines technology relatively broadly. (Uber Eats, for example, is considered a tech company.) Only two automobile companies are advertising during the game. About 40% of advertisers this year have never bought a Super Bowl spot before, Marshall said.

But the entrance of prediction market platforms means Marshall has reason to keep details close to the vest.

For those not familiar with how these prediction markets work, they basically trade like stocks, with contracts priced between $0 and $1. The contracts trade up or down depending on the action.

For example, for “Which brands will advertise during the big game 2026?” on Kalshi, Spotify spiked on Jan. 19, going from $0.35 to $0.69 before settling down. As of Friday morning, a “Yes” contract for Spotify was priced at $0.37.

If your predicted outcome materializes, you get paid, with winning contracts paying out $1 each, minus fees.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi are also offering other prediction trades around the Super Bowl, including “What songs will be played at the halftime show?,” “Who will attend the big game?” (Lionel Messi? Elon Musk?), and more traditional sportsbook “bets” such as “Seattle vs. New England: Most Rushing Yards.”

While straight sports predictions, such as rushing yards, are unknown events, there are likely hundreds, if not thousands, of employees that know if their company is planning to run a Super Bowl commercial. That makes some contracts ripe for insider trading.

Existing laws prohibit insider trading on prediction markets, but industry experts are skeptical that a gutted Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the will or the staff to police those problems. 

Meanwhile the question of whether events contracts on sports amount to financial derivatives or gambling is dividing the sports gambling industry — and tying federal courts in knots.  

“A couple of courts have held that event contracts based on sports are not derivatives subject to the CFTC’s authority,” said Jack Murphy, senior counsel at Akin Gump and a former CFTC enforcement attorney. “Those decisions are up on appeal. If sports event contracts aren’t derivatives, then criminal authorities could still prosecute insider trading on prediction markets under a wire fraud theory.”

On Thursday, Michael Selig, the new chairman of the CFTC, said he had directed agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would ban prediction trades on sports and politics. He said new rules would be coming.

Meanwhile live sports continue to fuel prediction market growth. Kalshi’s on track for 44% month-over-month growth in total trading volume, according to Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley. The contract on “Who will win the Super Bowl?” – the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots – has already accounted for more than $150 million in trading volume.