Which Asset Will Lead by the End of Q1?

• Gold and silver rallied to record levels in early 2026 before significant pullbacks.
• Bitcoin trades near $82,000 after daily and monthly declines.
• Leadership by quarter-end depends on macro signals, risk appetite, and rotation trends.

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are posting divergent price moves in Q1 2026 amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. Recent gains in precious metals and Bitcoin’s weakness highlight changing investor positioning. Policy signals, liquidity trends, and market flows are expected to determine asset leadership by quarter-end.

Bitcoin Slips Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is trading at $82,078, down 6.9% over the past day and 7.1% over the past month, according to market data. The decline, roughly 35% below its all-time high above $126,000 set in October, reflects weaker risk appetite and reduced speculative activity across digital asset markets.

Despite the pullback, macro conditions remain broadly supportive for Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve cut rates three times last year, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%–3.75%, with markets pricing in further easing later in 2026. Global liquidity measures such as M2 remain elevated, a trend that has historically supported risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Still, institutional demand has softened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.57 billion in November and December 2025, the largest since launch. Annual net inflows also fell 39% year-over-year, from $35.2 billion to $21.4 billion. Notably, the ETFs saw $817 million in outflows yesterday alone, as Bitcoin traded at its two-month low.

The decline follows a period of price consolidation earlier in the month. Analysts at Glassnode noted slowing on-chain activity, with lower transaction volumes and declining participation from short-term holders. Exchange inflows rose during the sell-off, signaling profit-taking and risk reduction by traders.

Even so, Bitcoin remains above the key psychological $80,000 level. Analysts at CoinShares said macro liquidity conditions remain supportive over the medium term, though near-term price action will likely depend on investor sentiment and broader equity market trends.

Separately, analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin is likely to continue underperforming relative to equities, adding that expectations of a “massive rotation” from precious metals into crypto may be premature.

Gold Retreats After Strong January Gains

Source: TradingView 

Gold is trading at $5,171.12 per ounce, down 3.89%, over the past day, following profit-taking after strong gains.

Despite the daily decline, gold remains up 24.68% for the month—an increase of $1,065.07 since the start of January. Central bank purchases and safe-haven demand supported prices throughout the month, particularly amid persistent geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.

Analysts at UBS said gold’s January performance reflects continued diversification by reserve managers and institutional investors. However, they warned that short-term corrections remain likely after such rapid appreciation. Still, gold’s resilience has kept it among the top-performing assets in Q1 so far.

Silver Volatility Reflects Mixed Demand Signals

Source: TradingView

Silver traded at $107.83, down $6.67, or 5.83%, over the past day. The decline followed a sharp rally earlier in the month, during which silver gained 51.95%, or $39.61, over the past 30 days.

Silver’s price action reflects its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Analysts at Citi said expectations of stronger demand from manufacturing and clean energy sectors fueled recent gains, while rapid profit-taking triggered the latest pullback. They predicted silver could reach $150 per ounce, citing Chinese demand and other structural drivers.

Compared with gold, silver has exhibited significantly higher volatility throughout January. While daily losses have been steeper, silver’s monthly performance remains the strongest among the three assets. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank cautioned that rising gold and silver prices are entering a higher-risk phase, with increased volatility beginning to erode market liquidity.

Which Asset Leads as Q1 Progresses?

Comparing asset performance in Q1 reveals distinct leadership patterns. Gold and silver posted early gains driven by safe-haven demand, inflation concerns, and central bank buying, though sharp advances have led to profit-taking and short-term pullbacks.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has declined amid risk-off sentiment and weaker institutional flows. On-chain indicators such as MVRV-Z and NUPL currently point to neutral sentiment rather than extreme fear or optimism.

Looking ahead, asset leadership by the end of the quarter will likely hinge on policy signals, investor rotation, and incoming economic data. Additional rate cuts could support risk assets like Bitcoin, while sustained inflation and growth concerns may continue to favor gold and silver.

Notably, Milk Road highlighted a historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s price movements with a roughly six-month lag. According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s recent sideways trading amid gold’s rally may reflect timing rather than structural underperformance. 

However, analyst Charlie Morris Edwards warned that gold and silver’s 18-month rally could continue, cautioning against premature capital rotation into Bitcoin.

Related: Why Gold’s Boom May Not Signal the End for Bitcoin