BCH Technical Analysis Feb 1

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is trading at the 521.50$ level with a 4% drop in the last 24 hours and continues to maintain overall downward trend dominance. RSI has declined to the 34 level, approaching the oversold region, while critical resistance and support levels preserve the potential for both scenarios (bullish or bearish) to occur; this is the turning point that market participants should watch.

Current Market Situation

BCH fluctuated in the 467.20$ – 545.10$ range before stabilizing at the 521.50$ level, with 24-hour trading volume remaining at a moderate 489.54 million$. Technical indicators are predominantly giving bearish signals: RSI at 34.33 is near the oversold region but momentum loss continues, MACD maintains a bearish crossover with a negative histogram. Price is trading below EMA20 (574.98$) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, marking 603.56$ as resistance. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 17 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1D has 4 supports/3 resistances, 3D has 2 supports/4 resistances, 1W has 2 supports/3 resistances balance. This structure suggests short-term consolidation but carries potential for strong movement depending on the breakout direction. Although the overall trend is downward, oversold RSI and potential volume increases could signal a reversal.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, a daily close above the critical resistance level of 531.9714$ (score: 80/100) is required first. If this breakout is supported by increasing trading volume and RSI rising above the 50 level, EMA20 (574.98$) could be tested. MACD histogram approaching the zero line and Supertrend turning to a bullish signal provide additional confirmation. Sequential breaks of 1D and 3D resistances (557.7750$, 584.5286$) in MTF target the strong levels on the weekly chart. If Bitcoin holds its 78,196$ support, an altcoin rally could be triggered, as BCH is highly correlated with BTC. A +20% increase in volume and green candlestick formations (hammer or engulfing) strengthen this scenario. To ensure the breakout is not fake, watch for 2-3 hours of hold above 531.97$; otherwise, invalidation is a pullback to the 517.3196$ support.

Target Levels

First target 557.7750$ (score: 68/100), followed by 584.5286$ and, upon breaking EMA20, the 603.56$ Supertrend resistance. In strong momentum, the main target is set at 730.1744$ (score: 22/100), located at the intersection of Fibonacci extension and MTF resistances. Risk/reward ratio (R/R) calculated from current levels is around 1:2.5, meaning a rise from 521$ to 730$ offers attractive potential. Reaching these targets could provide +40% returns, but BTC resistances (80,417$) should be monitored.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below the 494.5578$ support (score: 71/100); this breakout is reinforced by MACD’s deeper negative divergence and RSI falling below 30. Strengthening of the Supertrend bearish signal, distancing from EMA20, and increased red candle volume heighten risks. Even if BTC holds its 78,196$ support, it could pressure BCH in the overall downtrend, as BTC dominance is giving a Supertrend bearish signal. In MTF, excess resistances in 3D and 1W (total 10R vs 8S) support downward momentum. Additional risks: Loss of 517.3196$ after low-volume fake recovery and general market fear (fear index high). For breakout confirmation, hourly hold below 494$ is required; invalidation is a return to 531.97$ resistance.

Protection Levels

First protection at 446.9000$ (score: 62/100); if broken, the main target of 309.2714$ (score: 4/100) comes into play, aligned with monthly lows and Fibonacci retracement. R/R from current levels is around 1:1.5, carrying a +40% loss risk from 521$ to 309$. Stop-loss protection below 494$ is recommended, but each trader should adjust according to their own risk management. Holding these levels could limit the downside.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: Volume explosion (bullish for +30%, bearish for red volume), RSI divergence (bull: upward, bear: downward), and MACD crossover. Critical pivot is the 517-531$ range; the closing direction here is decisive. BTC movements take priority: Holding 78,196$ favors bull, break favors bear. Confirmation signals: Daily/4-hour candle closes, VWAP, and pivot points. Traders should decide using invalidation levels for each scenario (bull: 494$, bear: 531$) and adopt a waiting strategy to avoid hasty entries.

Bitcoin Correlation

As a highly correlated altcoin with BTC, BCH is directly affected by BTC price action; BTC is in a downtrend at 78,322$ with a -6.51% drop and giving a Supertrend bearish signal. If BTC holds 78,196$ support, short-term recovery in BCH is possible, but a break of 75,727$ triggers a general selling wave in altcoins (BCH target risk to 309$ increases). Conversely, if BTC breaks above 80,417$ resistance, the BCH bullish scenario strengthens (path to 730$ opens). Rising BTC dominance calls for altcoin caution, so BCH traders should primarily monitor BTC supports (78k, 75k) and resistances (80k, 83k); correlation coefficient is at +0.85+ levels.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios remain open for BCH: Break above 531.97$ for bullish, loss of 494.56$ for bearish is key. Monitoring list: Volume, RSI/MACD updates, BTC levels, and MTF breakouts. For detailed review, visit the BCH Spot Analysis and BCH Futures Analysis pages. Traders should focus on their own analysis and risk management; the market is volatile, be patient. (Word count: ~1050)