GOP insiders expect a 'real battle' after double-digit loss in Texas Trump district

Texas politics experienced a major bombshell when, on Saturday night, January 31, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by 14 percent in a special election in the Ft. Worth suburbs. Rehmet and Wambsganss competed for a Texas State Senate seat in an area that Donald Trump carried by 17 percent in 2024.

Although Dallas Proper leans Democrat, the Dallas and Ft. Worth suburbs are much more GOP-friendly. But despite an endorsement from Trump, Wambsganss suffered a double-digit defeat.

In an article published on February 1, the New York Times' J. David Goodman examines the broader implications of Rehmet's victory. The 2026 midterms are a little over nine months away, and both Democratic and GOP insiders are pointing to Wambsganss' loss as a bad sign for Republicans.

Goodman reports, "Democrats quickly seized on Mr. Rehmet's victory as a sign of their growing strength even in deeply red areas of the country…. Some Republicans also saw it as a warning about the future. 'November was always going to be a real battle but tonight should hopefully remind us all that we will be fighting against a force that believes they have to win,' Luke Macias, a conservative activist and Texas political consultant, said in a social media post."

The Times reporter notes that the Texas State Senate special election "had been closely followed by national leaders from both parties as a barometer of potential Republican struggles in this year's midterm elections."

"It attracted outsized attention after Mr. Rehmet, 33, performed far better than expected in the first round of voting in November and ended up in the runoff," Goodman explains. "Since then, he received a surge of support from Democratic groups, including the Democratic National Committee. Republican leaders, concerned that a defeat could bring an influx of Democratic investment into Texas races in 2026, tried to rally support for Ms. Wambsganss. She received an endorsement from President Trump and the backing of prominent conservative leaders in Texas, including Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. The chairman of the Republican National Committee met with Ms. Wambsganss last week."

Although Democrats dominate Texas' major urban centers — from Houston and Austin to El Paso — and perform well in some of the state's congressional districts, they struggle in statewide races. But Rehmet's victory is making Democrats feel more optimistic about their prospects in the Lone Star State in 2026.

One statewide Texas race that will be closely watched this year is the competition for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who is getting an aggressive primary challenge from far-right Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Conservative Washington Post columnist George Will considers Paxton a highly divisive figure and believes that if he is the nominee instead of Cornyn, that seat will be in play for Democrats in November.

Read J. David Goodman's full New York Times article at this link (subscription required).

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