Bitcoin’s Next Downside Target Could Be $58,000, Warns Peter Brandt

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin’s recent sell-off is likely not finished, identifying $58,000, which he refers to as “58th Street”, as the next major downside target following the sharp market flush on January 31, 2026.

Brandt’s assessment comes after Bitcoin was decisively rejected from the $100,000 psychological level earlier in the month, a failure he views as structurally significant rather than a temporary pullback.

Why $58,000 Matters Technically

Brandt’s downside projection is grounded in a combination of long-term trend analysis and classic chart patterns.

At the core of his thesis is a reversion-to-the-mean framework using the Bitcoin Power Law V2.0. According to this model, the $58,000–$60,000 zone aligns with the central trendline of Bitcoin’s long-term logarithmic growth channel, a level that historically attracts price during deep corrective phases.

He also highlighted the formation of a bearish megaphone pattern, often described as a broadening top. This structure reflects increasing volatility and loss of directional control, conditions that frequently precede deeper trend reversals rather than orderly consolidations.

Adding to the bearish case is a confirmed death cross between the 21-week and 50-week simple moving averages. Brandt noted that while such crosses are not precise timing tools, they have historically appeared during extended corrections that eventually lead into macro bottoms.

What Would Invalidate the Bearish Scenario

Despite his caution, Brandt was clear about what would force him to reassess the downside outlook. He stated that Bitcoin must reclaim and hold above $93,000 to negate the bearish structure. Without a sustained recovery above that level, he views rallies as corrective rather than trend-changing.

As long as price remains below that zone, downside risks remain dominant in his framework.

Macro Pressures Amplifying the Downturn

The technical weakness is unfolding alongside broader macro and geopolitical stressors that analysts say are intensifying selling pressure.

These include renewed U.S.–EU trade tensions, fresh tariff rhetoric from President Trump, and tightening global financial conditions as markets adjust to a confirmed bear cycle. In parallel, institutional flows have turned negative, with five consecutive days of ETF outflows in late January contributing to persistent sell-side pressure.

Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Painful

While Brandt’s near-term outlook is cautious, he has not abandoned his long-term bullish stance. He continues to project a potential Bitcoin rally toward $200,000 by Q3 2029, viewing the current correction as part of a larger cyclical reset rather than a terminal breakdown.

However, he issued a psychological warning to traders targeting $58,000 as a “safe” dip-buying level. Brandt cautioned that if Bitcoin continues sliding toward the mid-$40,000 range, many participants may struggle to hold positions through the volatility, even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

For now, his message is clear: the market has not yet shown evidence of a durable bottom, and patience may be required before true stabilization emerges.

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