The post XLM Technical Analysis Feb 2 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. XLM is trading in a tight range around $0.18, with RSI at 31 signaling oversold whileThe post XLM Technical Analysis Feb 2 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. XLM is trading in a tight range around $0.18, with RSI at 31 signaling oversold while

XLM Technical Analysis Feb 2

XLM is trading in a tight range around $0.18, with RSI at 31 signaling oversold while MACD maintains bearish structure; this creates a critical juncture for both bullish rebound and downside continuation.

Current Market Situation

XLM stabilized at $0.18 after rising 1.53% in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend continues downward. The price range is narrowing between $0.17-$0.18, with volume at $125.57M at moderate levels. Technical indicators show RSI at 30.97 in oversold territory, which could signal a potential rebound; however, MACD confirms bearish momentum with negative histogram. Price continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.20) and Supertrend gives bearish signal, with strong resistance at $0.21. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were detected across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 3D, 1 support/4 resistances on 1W weighted. Critical supports at $0.1655 (strength score 74/100) and $0.1771 (64/100), resistance at $0.1852 (66/100). This structure indicates potential for breakout in either direction; traders should monitor volume increases and candle closes.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear breakout above $0.1852 resistance and daily close above it is required first. The oversold RSI level (30.97), if supported by positive divergence, could lead to momentum shift; MACD histogram rising toward the zero line with +20% volume increase should be seen. Once EMA20 ($0.20) is surpassed and Supertrend turns green, short-term uptrend is confirmed. Breaking 3D and 1W resistances in MTF (e.g., $0.21) triggers broader rally. Invalidation for this scenario is loss of $0.1771 support; close below it invalidates the entire bullish structure. Traders should watch for increasing buy volume at $0.1852 and bullish engulfing candles – these provide breakout confirmation.

Target Levels

First target $0.20 (EMA20), then $0.21 Supertrend resistance and psychological $0.22. On strong breakout, next stop $0.2479 (score 10/100, fib extension level). Risk/reward ratio from current levels is around 1:3; however, BTC correlation must be positive. For long-term targets, 1W timeframe resistances must be surpassed, potentially extending to $0.25 region.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario triggers with hourly/daily close below $0.1771 support; if broken, panic selling accelerates. As MACD bearish histogram expands, RSI zeros out below 30 and negative divergence forms, momentum increases. Selling pressure in volume (+15% increase) and bearish candle patterns (e.g., shooting star at $0.18) heighten risk. Supertrend remains bearish and distance from EMA20 widens, making tests of 3D/1W supports in MTF (e.g., $0.1655) likely. Invalidation for this scenario is breakout of $0.1852 resistance; close above it invalidates the bearish thesis. Overall market BTC downtrend and low volume strengthen this risk – traders should track volume spike at $0.1771 and red candle closes.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.1771, on breakout $0.1655 (strong support, score 74/100) is critical. Below it, psychological $0.15 region, ultimate target $0.0941 (score 22/100, fib retracement). Risk/reward here around 1:2.5; stop-losses should be placed below $0.1771. 1W timeframe supports can be monitored to avoid deep drops.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision point is $0.1771-$0.1852 range; volume >$150M and clear candle closes are decisive. For bullish, RSI >40 and MACD zero crossover; for bearish, RSI <25 and new lows should be monitored. As volatility increases (ATR >5%), position sizing should be adjusted. Additional data can be obtained from XLM Spot Analysis and XLM Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

XLM shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $78,290 with Supertrend bearish signal – creating caution for altcoins. If BTC fails to hold $77,445 support, XLM $0.1771 breakdown accelerates; conversely, if $79,396 resistance is surpassed, XLM bullish scenario strengthens. BTC supports ($74,604, $63,235) align with XLM $0.1655/$0.0941, while resistances ($83,548) support XLM $0.2479 rally. If BTC dominance rises, altcoin pressure increases; traders should watch below BTC $77k.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios valid; consolidation in $0.18 range awaits breakout. Watchlist: Volume changes, RSI/MACD divergences, $0.1771/$0.1852 closes, and BTC $77,445 movement. Traders should act with their own risk management, follow news flow (none currently). Visit spot and futures pages for daily updates.

This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.

Senior Technical Analyst: James Mitchell

6 years of crypto market analysis

This analysis is not investment advice. Do your own research.

Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xlm-technical-analysis-february-2-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

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